Without climate action, heat will cause millions of deaths by 2099

Climate change is rapidly altering the health landscape across Europe, with extreme heat emerging as a growing threat.

A new study by the Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine projects that over 2.3 million additional deaths could occur in 854 European cities by 2099 if urgent action is not taken to curb carbon emissions.

These findings indicate that rising temperatures will lead to a significant increase in mortality, surpassing any reduction in cold-related deaths.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation

The research highlights the pressing need for both climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Even with high levels of adaptation, heat-related health risks will continue to escalate, particularly in regions most vulnerable to rising temperatures.

The Mediterranean, Central Europe, and the Balkans are expected to experience the most severe consequences, with extreme heat events becoming more frequent and deadly.

“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,” noted study lead author Dr. Pierre Masselot of the EHM-Lab.

“This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.”

Predicting heat-related deaths

The study identifies key European cities that will be disproportionately affected by rising temperatures, with major urban centers in Spain, Italy, and Greece bearing the highest burden.

The research suggests that Barcelona, Rome, Naples, and Madrid will see the most significant increases in heat-related deaths by the end of the century. Milan, Athens, and Valencia are also expected to witness substantial mortality spikes due to prolonged exposure to extreme heat.

Large Mediterranean cities will be particularly vulnerable, but the crisis is not confined to these areas alone. Many smaller urban centers in Malta, Spain, and Italy will also experience alarmingly high death rates. The pattern of risk highlights the urgent need for targeted climate action to protect populations living in these high-exposure regions.

Some cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia may experience a net decrease in temperature-related deaths. London, for instance, is projected to see a decrease of 27,455 deaths.

However, these reductions will be vastly outweighed by the surge in mortality across the continent. The study concludes that without aggressive intervention, the European death toll from climate change will continue to rise, leaving millions of lives at risk.

Adaptation alone will not be enough

The findings make it clear that adaptation efforts alone will not be sufficient to counteract the increasing mortality risks associated with heat exposure.

Even if cities invest heavily in climate-resilient infrastructure, improved healthcare responses, and urban cooling measures, these strategies will not fully offset the dangers posed by rising global temperatures.

The experts report that only significant cuts to carbon emissions can effectively limit the number of heat-related deaths.

Without decisive action, even the most advanced adaptation strategies will struggle to protect vulnerable populations from the escalating effects of extreme heat. The Mediterranean region, in particular, faces an existential challenge, with soaring temperatures posing a direct threat to public health.

“This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,” noted Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author and lead of the EHM-Lab.

“These results debunk proposed theories of ‘beneficial’ effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.”

Deadly impacts of climate change

To reach these alarming conclusions, the researchers analyzed temperature-related mortality risks in cities across Europe.

The study incorporated a range of data, including local adaptation patterns, population demographics, and climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report.

By examining various climate and epidemiological simulations, the team assessed the uncertainty surrounding their estimates and identified the most probable outcomes.

The research used risk functions of temperature to estimate expected mortality rates attributed to changing climate conditions. By factoring in population growth, temperature trends, and death rates, the study provides a comprehensive picture of the future health risks posed by global warming.

However, the study does not account for specific weather phenomena such as prolonged heatwaves, extreme nighttime temperatures, and humidity variations, all of which could further amplify the estimated death toll.

This suggests that the true impact of climate change on mortality rates may be even more severe than currently projected.

Urgent need for climate action

The implications of this research are clear: immediate action is required to reduce carbon emissions and protect public health.

Governments must prioritize aggressive climate policies that cut greenhouse gas emissions while also strengthening adaptation measures to minimize harm in the most vulnerable areas.

Without decisive intervention, Europe faces a grim future in which millions more people will suffer and die from climate-induced heat exposure.

This study serves as a stark reminder that the consequences of climate inaction will be far-reaching and devastating. The challenge ahead is immense, but with urgent and coordinated efforts, it is still possible to prevent the worst outcomes and safeguard lives across Europe.

The study is published in the journal Nature Medicine.

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