Winters are set to become much wetter in the United States

With the impacts of climate change growing increasingly tangible, one aspect that might see a significant transformation is winter weather.

A new study indicates that global warming has caused a shift in America’s weather patterns that will lead to a future of wetter winters.

This is the conclusion of an in-depth study from the University of Illinois Chicago. A team of researchers led by Akintomide Akinsanola used climate models to explore potential changes in U.S. winter precipitation by the end of the 21st century.

The focus was not only on overall winter precipitation but also on extreme weather events, and the results were quite revealing.

Wetter winters will become common

It turns out that not only can we expect more abundant winter precipitation, but also a surge in extreme weather events across the country.

In addition, there will be an increased occurrence of “very wet” winters – the kind that ranked in the top 5% of U.S. historical winter precipitation totals.

By century’s end, these once uncommon winters may occur as often as once every four years in some parts of the U.S.

There will also be a shift from snow to rain in many regions, leading to implications for agriculture, water resources, flooding, and other environmentally sensitive areas.

Predicting the unpredictable

While summer and other seasons have uncertain precipitation projections, winter precipitation will be robustly intensified in the future, racing well beyond what historical data has shown us.

The research was focused on 19 Earth system models across the seven U.S. subregions identified in the National Climate Assessment Report.

Wetter winters by region

Across the entire United States, the study showed an increase in average winter precipitation of two to five percent per degree of warming by the end of the 21st century.

In terms of absolute change, the Northwest and Northeast U.S. will see the largest increases. Six out of the seven regions will also experience a higher frequency of extremely wet winters, with the Northeast and Midwest witnessing the sharpest increases.

The Southern Great Plains, made up of states like Texas and Oklahoma, is the only region where projected changes are very small and highly uncertain.

In this part of the country, more frequent extreme dry events will balance or outweigh the increase in extreme wet events.

Extreme winters and climate change

The findings highlight that changes in winter precipitation will have a significant nationwide impact.

The form of precipitation will likely change in multiple areas too; previous research projects that rising temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, leading to diminished snow depth.

This simultaneous decrease in snow and increase in rain will undoubtedly stress existing systems.

Adapting to a changing climate

Infrastructure will need to undergo updates or upgrades, as we’re not only dealing with the mean precipitation but also an increase in severe weather conditions.

Buildings and drainage systems will need improvements to manage potential floods and storm damage.

Coming to grips with our changing climate isn’t just about mitigation, but also adaptation. As we move forward, it’s critical that we consider these predicted shifts and adjust accordingly – both on an individual and community level.

Winter flood risks

As wetter winters become more frequent, the threat of winter flooding will rise – particularly in areas with aging infrastructure.

With more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, regions accustomed to snowpack will face faster runoff and potential flood hazards.

Local governments and communities will need to prioritize flood mitigation strategies, from improving drainage systems to reinforcing levees.

Failure to prepare could result in widespread damage to homes, businesses, and ecosystems.

Wildlife in a changing climate

The shift from snow to rain will also affect wildlife that depends on snowy conditions. Species such as snowshoe hares, lynxes, and certain bird populations may struggle to adapt to the changing landscape.

As winters become wetter and milder, these animals could see significant habitat disruption, pushing some species toward migration or even endangerment.

Conservation efforts will need to evolve to account for the new challenges posed by changing winter environments.

The study is published in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

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