Wildlife will struggle to adapt to increasing droughts in the U.S.

Have you ever noticed how plants wilt visibly during a dry spell? Now, imagine that happening on a much larger scale, affecting entire ecosystems. It’s easy to overlook how deeply wildlife depends on rainfall – until a severe drought strikes, leaving a lasting and significant impact.

A recent study reveals that wildlife in the continental United States will face a staggering increase in year-long and multi-year droughts in the coming decades.

Specifically, year-long droughts are expected to become nearly five times more common from 2050 to 2080 compared to historical levels (1950–2005). Even more dramatically, the frequency of three-year droughts could increase nearly sevenfold.

Drought frequency and greenhouse gases

“The degree of increased drought exposure for each species in our analysis strongly depends on future greenhouse gas concentrations,” explained Dr. Merijn van den Bosch, the lead author of the study.

The research highlights a grim reality: even with lower greenhouse gas emissions, virtually all vertebrate species will face increased exposure to prolonged droughts. This spells trouble for species already struggling to adapt to occasional drought conditions.

“For example, the endangered giant kangaroo rat, which is native to dry habitats in California, has adapted to occasional short droughts,” noted Dr. van den Bosch.

“However, populations can plummet after multi-year droughts, compounding existing threats, including a loss of nearly all their historic habitat.”

This study predicts that much of the remaining habitat for the giant kangaroo rat will soon experience more frequent and longer droughts. “That does not bode well for this already-endangered species,” said van den Bosch.

Drought in wildlife management

Drought conditions are not just a concern for endangered species. The ranges of many game animals – such as ducks, other waterfowl, and ungulates like elk – are also projected to face a significant increase in year-long and three-year droughts.

This trend poses challenges for wildlife management and conservation efforts, potentially disrupting ecosystems and hunting industries.

Biodiversity hotspots under threat

To help mitigate the impact of these changes, the researchers focused on areas with high biodiversity and significant projected increases in drought frequency.

By identifying these regions, they aim to guide adaptive water management and habitat restoration efforts to protect wildlife more effectively.

The scientists used advanced modeling to predict temperature and moisture scenarios based on six different climate projections. They compared these projections with the geographic ranges of 349 bird, 339 mammal, 280 amphibian, and 253 reptile species.

The most drought-threatened region

The study revealed that the southwestern United States stands out as the most drought-threatened region.

After adjusting for land area, the Southwest had the highest biodiversity, the most drought-threatened species, and the greatest predicted increase in drought exposure.

“Some of the areas expected to see the greatest increase in drought, such as the southwestern U.S., are already quite dry,” said Dr. Zack Steel, senior author of the study.

“Many species living in these regions are adapted to periodic droughts, but the concern is that if they are already near the limit of what they can tolerate, the large increase in drought we’re expecting can have grave consequences for these ecosystems and the wildlife that depend on them.”

Protecting wildlife in drought-prone regions

This research highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to address the escalating challenges posed by drought. Adaptive water management, habitat restoration, and conservation strategies tailored to drought-prone regions could help mitigate the impact on wildlife.

The study was conducted by Dr. Merijn van den Bosch, a post-doctoral scientist at Colorado State University and the Rocky Mountain Research Station, and senior author Dr. Zack Steel, a research ecologist with the Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Their work highlights the pressing need for innovative approaches to safeguard wildlife in an era of increasing environmental stress.

The message is clear: addressing the root causes of climate change while implementing conservation strategies is essential to protecting vulnerable species.

As droughts become a more frequent feature of life in the United States, their effects on ecosystems and wildlife cannot be ignored.

The study is published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. 

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