Two-thirds of temperate rainforests could be lost this century

Rainforests are not just a symbol of natural beauty; they are a crucial component of our planet’s ecosystem. Yet, climate change poses an imminent threat to these vital habitats and beyond.

Up to two-thirds of the world’s temperate rainforests could fall victim to climate change by the year 2100 according to a new study by researchers at the University of Leeds.

Global assessment of temperate rainforests

The study is one of its kind – the first-ever global assessment of the impact of climate change on temperate rainforests.

“Temperate rainforests are rare ecosystems found only in wet and cool regions, making them vulnerable to a warming climate. They are important to conserve because they host unique species and can store high amounts of carbon,” noted the study authors.

With the help of comprehensive maps detailing tree cover, forest conditions, and climate data, the researchers were able to evaluate how human activity and climate change have collectively impacted the world’s temperate rainforests and how they might continue to do so.

Although covering less than one percent of the Earth’s land surface, temperate rainforests have a significant role to play. The forests are located in many countries such as Canada, the United States, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.

They are globally acknowledged for their ecological importance. Their high carbon storage capacity exceeds that of forests in other latitudes.

The future of temperate forests

The researchers predict that in the most pessimistic scenario, we stand to lose up to 68 percent of our planet’s temperate rainforests in the coming decades. In certain regions, this loss might reach a staggering 90 percent.

However, there’s a silver lining: our actions can change the trajectory. If we take robust measures against fossil fuel emissions, the projected loss would be only about 23 percent.

Rapid and decisive actions could further curtail this loss to a mere nine percent. This, once again, emphasizes the dire need for urgent, effective steps to counter climate change.

Identifying the most vulnerable forests

The research was led by Ben Silver, a research fellow at Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment.

“Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations,” said Silver.

“Our study also shows that if we work hard to slow climate change it is not too late to save the world’s temperate rainforests.”

“We hope our study will support the conservation of temperate rainforests by identifying those areas that are the least or the most vulnerable to climate change, and where there is potential to restore forest.”

British rainforests: A case study

Temperate rainforests dot the UK’s western seaboard, forming one of the most biodiverse habitats.

It’s here that the high humidity and low temperature range create the perfect conditions for moisture-loving lichens and bryophytes.

Britain’s temperate rainforests cover less than one percent of the land. Yet, the UK stands with more potential for restoration than any other place globally, hosting a quarter of the world’s unforested temperate rainforest climate zone.

The researchers found that temperate rainforests in the UK are resilient to low and medium amounts of future warming.

Professor Dominick Spracklen, co-author of the study, emphasized the need for the UK to lead the world in temperate rainforest restoration.

“The UK could and should be a global leader in restoration of temperate rainforests. New funding and bold action by large landowners are urgently needed to help deliver government targets for temperate rainforest restoration,” said Spracklen.

Dr. Dominick A. DellaSala, Chief Scientist of the U.S group Wild Heritage, reiterated the importance of the world’s rainforests as the “lungs of the planet.”

“All the world’s rainforests are the ‘lungs of the planet’ that must be protected and restored as natural climate solutions to avoid the worst of global overheating,” said Dr. DellaSalla.

“Temperate rainforests need to take their place alongside tropical rainforests and the boreal forests of the north as strategically vital to a safe climate.”

The study is published in the journal Earth’s Future.

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