Tobacco bans could help prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths

A recent study suggests that creating a generation of non-smokers through tobacco bans could prevent 1.2 million deaths from lung cancer worldwide.

The simulation study, which is one of the first of its kind, proposes that banning the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could lead to this significant reduction in lung cancer deaths by the year 2095.

Tobacco bans for a younger generation

The study’s findings emphasize that establishing a “tobacco-free generation” could profoundly reduce the number of smoking-related lung cancer deaths in the future.

Smoking is currently the leading cause of preventable death globally, contributing to more than two-thirds of the 1.8 million lung cancer deaths each year.

The study was led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), in collaboration with global experts.

Creating a tobacco-free generation

“Lung cancer is a major killer worldwide, and a staggering two-thirds of deaths are linked to one preventable risk factor – tobacco smoking,” said lead author Julia Rey Brandariz from the University of Santiago de Compostela.

“Our modeling highlights how much there is to gain for governments considering the implementation of ambitious plans towards creating a tobacco-free generation.”

According to Brandariz, not only could this save huge numbers of lives, but could also massively reduce the strain on health systems of treating and caring for people in ill health as a result of smoking.

Despite the potential impact, no country currently has laws prohibiting the sale of tobacco to young people. A notable attempt in New Zealand to ban tobacco sales to individuals born in or after 2009 was recently repealed.

Potential for tobacco bans to reduce deaths

Most prior studies on tobacco restrictions have focused on health benefits without addressing their potential to reduce deaths.

This study is the first to assess the long-term effect of a tobacco-free generation on lung cancer mortality, focusing on individuals born between 2006 and 2010 – aligned with the legal age for tobacco purchases in most countries.

The researchers used historical data from 82 countries in the WHO Mortality Database and applied it to the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, IARC’s global cancer statistics platform, to predict future lung cancer death rates for individuals born during this period.

The number of preventable smoking-related lung cancer deaths was also calculated using data from past studies on non-smokers.

How many lives could be saved?

The analysis suggests that eliminating smoking among this generation could prevent approximately 1.2 million lung cancer deaths across 185 countries. This represents 40.2% of the total lung cancer deaths expected to occur in this cohort by 2095.

The study estimates that nearly half of the lung cancer deaths among men (45.8% or 844,200 of 1.8 million deaths) could be prevented, while close to one-third of the deaths in women (30.9% or 342,400 of 1.1 million deaths) could be averted.

Tobacco bans and preventable death

Among men, upper-middle-income countries would see the greatest number of preventable deaths (64.1% or 541,100 deaths), with Central and Eastern Europe benefiting the most, avoiding 74.3% of potential lung cancer deaths (48,900 deaths).

For women, high-income countries would experience the most significant reduction in deaths (62% or 212,300 deaths), with Western Europe seeing a potential 77.7% reduction (56,200 deaths).

Most of the deaths prevented would be in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where nearly two-thirds (65.1% or 772,400 deaths) of the avoided deaths would occur. High-income countries would also benefit, preventing 61.1% (414,100) of the projected lung cancer deaths.

Smoking trends across countries

“While rates of smoking in high-income countries have fallen in recent years, lung cancer remains a leading cause of death and disease,” said study senior author Isabelle Soerjomataram of the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

“In low- and middle-income countries, which have rapidly growing populations of young people, the impact of banning tobacco sales could be even greater.”

Soerjomataram noted that part of the reason why eliminating smoking could save so many lives in low- and middle-income countries is because they tend to have younger populations than high-income countries.

“Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have fallen in many high-income countries.”

Limitations of the study

The authors acknowledge limitations in their study, such as the inability to account for factors like black markets or compliance issues.

Further analyses were conducted to estimate the reduction in health impacts if the ban were not fully effective. Additionally, limited data from some regions meant lung cancer predictions were based on 82 countries, potentially leading to over- or under-estimates in other areas.

Tobacco bans and global health outcomes

While the study didn’t account for e-cigarettes or changes in lung cancer rates among non-smokers due to improvements in healthcare, the findings make a strong case for tobacco-free policies aimed at reducing lung cancer deaths and improving global health outcomes.

“In summary, we estimated that more than 1.1 million lung-cancer deaths in 185 countries could be prevented in one 5-year birth cohort if smoking uptake was eliminated,” wrote the researchers.

“Europe, North America, and Australia and New Zealand were the regions where more lung-cancer deaths could be prevented by strengthening tobacco-control measures to achieve a tobacco-free generation.”

However, the experts noted, the impact of tobacco smoking on lung-cancer mortality remains high in many countries and will increase in others.

“Therefore, the implementation of tobacco-control measures to help reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking, and its impact, is imperative.”

The research is published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–