'Strong' solar storm warning issued as two CMEs will hit Earth tomorrow

Get ready, sky watchers and tech enthusiasts! The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm alerts for October 4-6, 2024.

This alert comes as two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are expected to make their way to Earth this weekend.

A geomagnetic storm occurs when solar wind — a stream of charged particles from the Sun — collides with Earth’s magnetic field.

These storms can disrupt satellite operations, GPS systems, and even power grids. While they’re fascinating to observe, strong geomagnetic storms can have significant impacts on our daily lives.

X-class solar flares

A massive solar flare erupted from the sun on Thursday morning, sending waves of charged particles toward Earth.

This powerful burst of solar energy has scientists and space weather experts keeping a close eye on potential effects here on our planet, including auroras expected in the lower part of the United States.

Experts at the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) reported that the flare, classified as an X9.0, occurred at 8:18 a.m. Eastern Time on October 3.

This comes just days after another significant flare from the same region on the sun, known as Active Region 3842.

Understanding solar flares

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation stemming from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots.

An X-class flare is among the most potent, capable of causing significant disturbances to Earth’s magnetosphere, which can affect satellite operations, communications, and even power grids.

The recent X9.0 flare is notable because it’s one of the strongest we’ve seen in this solar cycle. For context, only an X8.7 flare on May 14, 2024 surpassed it in intensity.

“Solar activity reached high levels with six M-class flares and one X-class flare,” noted the Space Weather Prediction Center. “The X9.0 occurred at 8:08 a.m. from Region 3842.”

Two incoming CMEs

According to the SWPC forecasters, “When these CMEs arrive at Earth, strong geomagnetic storms are likely to occur. Watches of this length and magnitude are infrequent, but not uncommon.”

These two CMEs were spotted off the southwest limb of the Sun at specific times:

• The first CME was observed at 03/2036 UTC, linked to an M6/2b flare at 03/2028 UTC.

• The second CME came from a different flare, an M4/1n, observed at 04/0455 UTC.

Both eruptions originated from Region 3842, a sunspot area known for its activity. Preliminary models suggest that the first CME might give Earth a “glancing blow” on October 7.

Tracking the sunspots

Sunspots are cooler areas on the Sun’s surface with intense magnetic activity. The regions mentioned — 3842, 3844, 3841, 3843, and the newly numbered 3849 — are all areas of interest for scientists monitoring solar activity.

These regions fluctuate in activity, with some growing, others decaying, and new ones emerging, like Region 3849.

Solar wind activity

Solar wind speeds have been steady, ranging from 300-400 km/s. The total magnetic field has varied between 3-8 nanoteslas (nT), with the Bz component fluctuating between +6 and -5 nT.

These parameters are expected to stay normal until the CMEs start their journey toward Earth, bringing disturbances as they arrive.

What to expect this weekend

The SWPC forecast indicates that the first CME might reach Earth on October 4, with the second following about 24 hours later.

This close arrival could dampen the solar winds initially, but expect a surge when the second CME hits. The geomagnetic field might spike to G3 levels, and in some cases, even reach G4 (Severe).

“The current geomagnetic forecast follows the CME driven WSA-Enlil run initialized at 03/1700 UTC on the SWPC website,” the forecasters explained.

This model predicts a narrow 24-hour window between the two CME arrivals, but there’s a margin of error of about ±8 hours due to speed variations.

Potential impacts

Strong geomagnetic storms can lead to beautiful auroras, visible even in lower latitudes than usual. However, they can also disrupt communication systems and navigation satellites.

Power grids might experience fluctuations, and pipelines could see increased corrosion rates. It’s a mixed bag of natural beauty and technological challenges.

Stay informed and prepared

As the weekend approaches, keep an eye on updates from the SWPC. “Stay tuned for updates as we monitor this activity!” the forecasters urged. Whether you’re a space enthusiast or concerned about potential tech disruptions, staying informed is key.

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