Some of the hottest places in the world are warming the fastest

Warming is rewriting the story of our world, and every region has its unique chapter in this global narrative.

Recent research reveals that in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which is already infamous for its scorching deserts and extreme summer temperatures, the pace of warming is accelerating faster than previously expected. This paints a stark picture for the future.

The fast-forward button on warming

According to a recent study, the MENA region is being fast-tracked into a future of accelerated climate change.

The region’s warming thresholds could be crossed two to three decades earlier than in other parts of the world.

By the time we welcome the 22nd century, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could be grappling with a whopping 9 degrees Celsius (16.2 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in temperature.

The MENA region, already notorious for its record-breaking summer temperatures, is teetering on the verge of exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming on average.

This figure is compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Without necessary adaption measures, this additional warmth could render some areas uninhabitable.

Warming across the world

Abdul Malik is a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the study’s lead author.

“When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and that we should not exceed two degrees Celsius,” warned Malik.

“But in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already surpassed 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.”

Taking into account the need for more precise data, the climate researchers at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology conducted analysis using highly-sophisticated models.

The CMIP5 and CMIP6 were utilized to analyse the region’s warming details meticulously.

“Although previous studies have shown that the region is warming much faster than other areas, we have shown that the warming rate is not consistent across the region,” Malik added. “And this warming rate could vary between 1.5 and 3.5 times faster than the global average.”

Desert dilemma: The heat gets turned up

The MENA region’s dry, arid deserts have a unique challenge. Unlike their humid counterparts nearer the equator, these deserts can’t easily cool down by soil moisture evaporation.

This factor accelerates the warming, making it nearly as fast as the polar regions.

By the turn of this century, the Arabian Peninsula could experience a heat increase ranging from 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under low emission scenarios to 7.6 degrees Celsius (13.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under high emission scenarios.

“But you can develop artificial environments in regions with high populations,” said Georgiy Stenchikov, a retired climate scientist and one of the study’s coauthors, highlighting the importance of adaptation.

A world adapting to a warming climate

If the world meets low-emissions targets, the rate of warming in the Middle East and North Africa could be curtailed by up to 38%.

Cities across the region can also explore urban greening and architecture-based solutions to cope with the extreme heat.

“Global warming is a global problem, so you cannot prevent it in just one place. Adaptation will be necessary, and these adaptation measures could be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa,” said Stenchikov.

The scorching temperatures in the MENA region are a stark reminder that climate change is a reality we must confront now, not later.

Taking measures to adapt and slow down this process could ensure a viable future for the region and ultimately, our world.

The human toll of extreme heat

Rising temperatures in the MENA region bring more than environmental challenges; they pose severe threats to public health and socioeconomic stability.

The long heatwaves can compound water shortages, leading to a heightened risk of heat-related illness, and can result in productivity losses in outdoor, labor-intensive industries like agriculture and construction, among others.

Vulnerable populations, including the the elderly, children, and low-income communities, are at the highest risk.

These conditions could also unleash a wave of climate migration, as some areas would become too hot for human habitation.

According to the researchers, addressing these impacts not only requires global reductions in emissions but also localized solutions like developing cooling infrastructure and heat-resilient building designs, as well as advancing public campaigns regarding heat safety.

The study is published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres.

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