Over half of the world’s glaciers are on pace to disappear by 2100

Many of the world’s glaciers formed during the last glacial maximum. These glaciers, remnants of the Ice Age, have persisted for thousands of years in high-altitude or polar regions.

However, there are big changes ahead. A recent study reveals that over half of the world’s glaciers could disappear by the end of this century.

The research, conducted by scientists at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium, suggests a chilling forecast for our planet’s glaciers.

The scientists estimated potential glacier loss under various carbon emissions scenarios. They took into account all of our planet’s glaciers – a whopping 200,000 in total.

Glaciers under severe threat

The numbers from the study are daunting. Under a high emissions scenario, up to 54 percent of all glaciers could vanish. In the Alps, this number reaches an alarming 75 percent.

“Glaciers are crucial in many parts of the world, and as such, glacier changes directly impact our society and the natural environment,” said study lead author and glaciologist Professor Harry Zekollari.

“Locally, glaciers can lead to natural hazards, they have an important touristic value, and they determine local water supply.”

From melting glaciers to rising sea levels

The melting of glaciers does not stop at the loss of an icy spectacle; the repercussions are far-reaching. One of the biggest concerns is the contribution of melting glaciers to rising sea levels, which heighten the risk of floods in coastal towns and cities.

Moreover, glacier loss diminishes freshwater resources that millions of people depend on for drinking water.

“Water supply from glaciers (and how this supply changes) will impact biodiversity and water availability for industry, agriculture, and households,” said Professor Zekollari.

The greenhouse effect only serves to worsen the crisis. As the Earth’s albedo – the ability to reflect sunlight – decreases, more energy from the sun is absorbed rather than reflected. This raises the risk of global warming, further aggravating climate change.

Predicting glacier mass loss

To estimate future glacier loss, the research team studied historical glacier masses, carbon emissions, and temperature data.

Armed with this information and the aid of computer modeling, the experts were able to make predictions about future glacier mass loss.

“By modeling glacier evolution throughout the 21st century under various climate scenarios, we found stark differences in outcomes depending on future emission levels,” noted Professor Zekollari.

Under low carbon emissions, glaciers could lose 25 to 29 percent of their mass by 2100. Under a high-emissions scenario, that figure could rise to between 46 and 54 percent.

The European Alps’ glaciers are among the most vulnerable. These glaciers are predicted to lose more than 75 percent of their volume under high-emission scenarios.

However, polar regions like Arctic Canada, Iceland, and Svalbard might retain a larger part of their glacier mass by century-end, albeit still facing significant loss.

Uncertainties in glacier evolution

Despite these painful revelations, the team acknowledges uncertainties in the projected glacier evolution, while stressing that the research specifically examined glaciers, not ice sheets.

Ice sheets, the gargantuan masses of glacial ice found on Greenland and Antarctica, carry about 99 percent of Earth’s freshwater.

While these ice sheets hold greater mass and react on longer timescales, their contribution to sea-level rise is about the same (or even slightly less) than from the 200,000 glaciers under study.

“For us it is indeed the crucial that all numbers by us and other researchers are combined to get the full sea-level rise picture,” concluded Professor Zekollari.

The fragility of our world’s glaciers highlights the pressing need for proactive climate action.

Preserving glaciers: A collective responsibility

The fate of the world’s glaciers is not set in stone. By reducing carbon emissions and implementing sustainable environmental policies, it is possible to slow their decline.

Efforts like transitioning to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable ecosystems, and raising global awareness about the importance of glaciers can help mitigate their loss.

Every action we take today helps protect glaciers for future generations, ensuring the preservation of freshwater resources, biodiversity, and the delicate balance of our climate.

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