NOAA Warning: "Strong" solar storms and auroras expected today

Update — September 16, 2024, 09:06 AM Eastern Time

The Sun has been keeping space weather experts busy, but things seem to have calmed down a bit — for now. Over the last 24 hours, solar activity has remained at low levels, with only a few minor C-class solar flares reported.

Let’s break down what’s happening up there and what we can expect today and tomorrow, according to the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

Solar activity: What’s happening?

In the last 24 hours, there were some minor movements and flares from a few active regions on the Sun. Here’s a quick rundown of the key players:

Region 3824 (located at S04W33) showed slight growth and was responsible for a few of the observed C-class flares.

This region has a beta-gamma magnetic classification, which means it has a moderate complexity in terms of its magnetic field.

Other regions like 3814 (N16W77), 3822 (N14W63), 3825 (S15E28), and 3826 (S28W38) were mostly stable or showed some decay.

For instance, Region 3825 lost its weaker magnetic configuration and only produced two minor flares. A new region, 3827 (S28E70), was also identified, but it has remained inactive so far.

No significant solar eruptions, known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), were detected in the latest imagery.

What to expect next

Looking ahead, solar activity is expected to stay low, but there’s still a slight chance of seeing some stronger flares.

On September 16th, there’s a small possibility of an X-class flare, which is the most intense type of flare.

For September 17th and 18th, the chances for M-class flares (moderate intensity) are slightly higher, with a continued small chance of an X-class flare.

Energetic particles update

Energetic particles, like electrons and protons, can impact our satellites and communication systems.

The electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) was at moderate to high levels, peaking at 1,692 particles per square centimeter per second per steradian (pfu) at around 11:05 AM Eastern Time on September 15th.

Proton flux levels (greater than 10 MeV) also remained elevated, peaking at 6.18 pfu at 10:55 AM Eastern Time.

Electron flux is expected to stay at moderate to high levels through midday on September 16th, then likely decrease as the CMEs from September 13th and 14th make their way to Earth.

There is a slight chance that proton levels might reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on September 16th, mainly due to the effects of the X4.5 flare from September 14th.

If there are no additional flare events, these probabilities should drop on September 17th and continue moving back toward normal levels by September 18th.

Solar wind

Solar wind, a stream of charged particles flowing from the Sun, can also impact Earth’s magnetic field:

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters have been slightly enhanced, probably due to influences from a high-speed solar wind stream (HSS) with a positive magnetic polarity.

The total magnetic field strength averaged around 8 nanoteslas (nT), and the Bz component (which indicates the direction of the magnetic field) fluctuated between +7 and -7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 300 miles per second (480 kilometers per second).

The slight enhancements in solar wind are expected to continue through the first half of September 16th. However, stronger effects are anticipated later in the day as the CMEs from September 13th and 14th arrive, potentially leading to elevated solar wind conditions through September 17th before things start to calm down on September 18th.

Geomagnetic activity

Geomagnetic activity refers to disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar wind and other solar phenomena. In the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active, likely due to the continued influence of a positive polarity HSS.

By midday on September 16th, the arrival of CMEs from September 13th and 14th, combined with the ongoing effects of the HSS, could increase conditions to a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm level.

These effects are likely to continue into September 17th, potentially reaching G2 (Moderate) storm levels, before gradually decreasing to more active but less intense levels by September 18th.

What does this mean for you?

For most people, solar activity doesn’t have a direct impact on daily life. However, these solar events can affect satellite communications, GPS systems, and even power grids in some cases.

If you’re an amateur radio operator or someone who relies heavily on satellite communications, it’s worth keeping an eye on the space weather forecast for the next few days.

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Update — September 13, 2024, 12:21 PM Eastern Time

The sun has been pretty active over the last 24 hours, keeping astronomers and space weather experts busy. Solar activity has stayed at high levels, primarily due to several M-class flares — a type of medium-intensity solar flare that can cause moderate space weather effects here on Earth.

The most powerful flare recently was an M6.8, which erupted from sunspot region AR 3811 on September 12, 2024 at 1443 UTC time as it moved beyond the western edge of the sun’s visible disk.

According to the NOAA’s Spaceweather Prediction Center (SWPC), another significant event came from sunspot region 3814, which produced an M2.9 flare at 0837 UTC on September 13. This region seems to be showing some signs of decay, indicating that its activity could decrease.

Meanwhile, region 3822 appears stable, and region 3824, while it has grown in length, has remained relatively quiet.

A new sunspot region, 3825, has rotated into view and already produced an M1.6 flare on September 12. There was also an M5.4 flare early on September 13, just beyond the sun’s southwestern limb.

Observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

Two notable Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed recently. The first was seen coming from beyond the eastern limb of the sun, visible in imagery from the LASCO C2 coronagraph at around 2024 UTC time on September 12.

The second CME originated from the southwest side of the sun, first appearing at approximately 0136 UTC time on September 13.

Neither of these CMEs is expected to have a direct impact on Earth, meaning we likely won’t see any significant geomagnetic effects from them.

Solar Activity Forecast

Looking ahead, solar activity is predicted to remain at moderate to high levels on September 13, with further M-class flares likely. We might continue to experience minor to moderate radio blackouts due to this flare activity.

However, as the active regions move further out of view on the sun’s western limb, M-class flare activity is expected to decrease slightly on September 14 and 15. Despite this, isolated radio blackouts are still possible.

Energetic particles update

Over the past 24 hours, the flux of electrons greater than 2 MeV has remained within normal to moderate levels. Meanwhile, the flux of protons greater than 10 MeV has been slightly elevated, but it has not reached a level that would trigger any warnings.

We can expect the electron flux to stay at normal to moderate levels through September 15. There is a slight chance that the proton flux could reach the S1 level — indicating a minor solar radiation storm — on September 13, as several active regions move out of view.

However, the likelihood of this happening should decrease over the following days, as those regions continue their rotation away from Earth.

Solar wind conditions

Solar wind parameters suggest the arrival of a CME that likely erupted on September 10, detected at 0300 UTC on September 12.

The total magnetic field strength increased gradually, peaking at 30 nT (nanoteslas), with the Bz component (a measure of the magnetic field in the north-south direction) primarily deflecting southward to a low of -25 nT.

The speed of the solar wind climbed throughout this period, reaching up to 600 km/s before settling down to a range of about 465 to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (phi) remained predominantly positive.

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through September 13 due to ongoing CME effects. Another CME, potentially arriving late on September 13, could further intensify these conditions through September 14.

On September 15, a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to come into a position that affects Earth, continuing the trend of an active solar wind environment.

Geospace conditions: How is Earth being affected?

The geomagnetic field reached a G3 (strong) storm level due to the influence of the CME effects.

Looking ahead, active to G1-G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to persist through September 13, influenced by the ongoing CME activity.

We can expect similar conditions again on September 14 as another CME arrives. By September 15, geomagnetic activity should reduce slightly to unsettled or active levels due to the influence of the coronal hole high-speed stream.

Stay tuned to Earth.com and the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center for real-time updates and alerts on the ongoing space weather conditions.

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NOAA geomagnetic solar storm warning issued on September 12, 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a warning for a significant geomagnetic solar storm. This event is expected to impact Earth on September 12, 2024, and continue through September 14, 2024.

The storm is classified as a G3 or greater on the NOAA space weather scale, indicating moderate to strong effects.

Understanding geomagnetic solar storms

A geomagnetic storm occurs when solar activity, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), disturbs the Earth’s magnetic field.

These storms are driven by solar wind, a stream of charged particles released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun.

When these particles interact with Earth’s magnetic field, they can cause various effects, from beautiful auroras to disruptions in power and communication systems.

Areas and impacts expected

The primary areas affected will be regions located above 50 degrees geomagnetic latitude, which includes parts of Canada, Alaska, and northern Europe. However, the effects could reach further south depending on the storm’s intensity.

Here’s what could happen during this event:

• Power Systems: Voltage irregularities may occur, leading to potential disruptions or false alarms in power grids. Operators should be on high alert for unusual activity.

• Satellites and Spacecraft: Satellites in low Earth orbit might experience increased drag and charging on their surfaces, potentially causing orientation problems or reduced lifespan.

• GPS and Navigation Systems: Satellite navigation (GPS) could face intermittent issues, such as loss of signal or increased error in positioning. This could affect not only personal GPS devices but also aviation and maritime operations.

• Radio Communications: High-frequency (HF) radio communications might be unreliable, especially in polar regions, which could disrupt aviation, maritime, and emergency services relying on these frequencies.

• Auroras: On a brighter note, the geomagnetic storm might produce spectacular auroras, probably visible in the southern regions of the United States.

Current solar storm activity overview

Over the past 24 hours, solar activity has been high, with a major X1.3 solar flare detected from an unnumbered region on the Sun’s southeast limb.

This flare was accompanied by multiple radio bursts, signaling intense solar storm activity. Additionally, several medium-sized (M-class) flares were reported from other active regions on the Sun.

The solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels, with a slight chance of another strong flare (X-class) from September 12 to 14.

Energetic particles and solar wind

The flux of high-energy electrons (greater than 2 MeV) remains at moderate levels, while the proton flux is trending towards normal.

However, there is a slight chance of increased proton flux reaching the minor threshold level from September 12 to 14.

Recent data suggests that two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), from September 8 and 10, have reached Earth.

An initial shock was detected around 2:54 AM UTC, causing the solar wind speed to rise from around 350 km/s to over 520 km/s. This increase could lead to prolonged geomagnetic disturbances.

Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to continue through September 13, with an additional enhancement likely around September 14 due to another CME from September 11.

What to expect in the coming days

• Geomagnetic Solar Storm Conditions: The geomagnetic field is currently fluctuating between quiet and active levels. However, moderate geomagnetic storms (G2 level) have already been recorded and could escalate further.

• Storm Forecast: Conditions are expected to remain unsettled to stormy through September 13, 2024 with another period of heightened activity possible on September 14 due to the arrival of the latest CME.

Staying prepared during a solar storm

Geomagnetic storms can impact various sectors, including aviation, navigation, satellite operations, and power systems. Here are a few ways to stay prepared:

• For Power Companies: Monitor systems closely for voltage irregularities and ensure backup systems are ready.

• For Satellite Operators: Be prepared for increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites and potential surface charging effects.

• For Travelers and Emergency Responders: Be aware of potential GPS inaccuracies and HF radio communication issues.

• For the Public: Enjoy the auroras if you’re in a location where they are visible, but also stay informed through local news or weather channels for updates on potential disruptions.

Stay tuned to Earth.com and the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center for real-time updates and alerts on the ongoing space weather conditions.

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