05-10-2024

"Severe Geomagnetic Storm" hits Earth, NOAA warning in effect all weekend

Earth.com staff writer

Update — May 10, 2024 at 7:31 PM EDT

NOAA Warning: Seven Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are racing towards Earth

NOAA scientists have witnessed severe (G4) geomagnetic storm conditions today. Several additional Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are in transit to Earth’s outer atmosphere, making it highly likely that geomagnetic storming will persist through the weekend.

A large, complex sunspot cluster (NOAA Region 3664), which has now grown to 17 times the diameter of Earth, has been the primary source of this activity. Experts still expect additional activity from this Region.

Since the current solar cycle began in December 2019, observers have only witnessed three Severe geomagnetic storms.

G4 and G5 level storms in history

The most recent G4 (Severe) storm occurred on March 23, 2024, while the Halloween Storms in October 2003 marked the last G5 (Extreme) event.

The G5 storm notably caused power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa, underscoring the potential consequences of such powerful geomagnetic disturbances.

This newest storm, caused by seven streams of plasma ejected from the sun earlier this week, could rival the intensity of the 1859 Carrington event, which disrupted global communications and set telegraph stations on fire.

Potential impacts on modern infrastructure

In our technology-dependent society, a geomagnetic storm of this magnitude could cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts, and damage to critical infrastructure. Some of the potential impacts include:

Voltage control problems and mistaken tripping of protective systems in the power grid
Intensified induced pipeline currents
Surface charging and increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites
Tracking and orientation problems for spacecraft
Degraded or inoperable satellite navigation (GPS) for hours
Sporadic or blacked out high frequency (HF) radio propagation

Spectacular auroral displays expected

Despite the potential risks, the event could also trigger magnificent nighttime auroras, or Northern lights.

Auroras may be seen as low as Florida and Texas in the southern states, down to Missouri in the Midwest, and down to Southern California on the west coast.

The auroral displays are expected to begin around 11:00 PM ET on Friday, May 10, 2024 and continue for several days.

Monitoring the storm’s severity

Scientists will have a better understanding of the storm’s severity around 8:00 PM ET when the plasma explosions are nearly one million miles from Earth. NOAA plans to issue alerts immediately to keep the public informed of the situation.

Possibility of a “Cannibal CME”

Scientists have also predicted that three of the six plasma streams, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), could combine to create a powerful “cannibal CME,” further intensifying the storm’s impact.

Understanding geomagnetic storms

Geomagnetic storms occur when high-energy particles released from solar flares ejected by the sun reach Earth. Although the sun continuously erupts and hurls particles into space, Earth’s distance of 93 million miles from the sun usually prevents these particles from reaching our planet.

Preparing for the worst

Clinton Wallace, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), emphasized the agency’s readiness, stating, “We anticipate we will get one shock after another. We are really buckling down here.”

While officials predict an event slightly less severe than the Carrington event (a G5 geomagnetic storm), they are not discounting the possibility of reaching the lower end of the same measurement scale, which ranges from G1 to G5.

As Earth prepares for this potentially historic geomagnetic storm, it is crucial to stay informed and heed any warnings or alerts issued by NOAA and other official sources.

By understanding the risks and taking appropriate precautions, we can minimize the storm’s impact on our modern way of life while marveling at the awe-inspiring auroral displays it may bring.

Stay tuned to Earth.com and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for updates.

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Update — May 10, 2024 at 2:04 PM EDT

NOAA Warning: “Severe Geomagnetic Storm” to impact Earth starting today

A Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm is highly likely to occur, possibly as early as later today and continuing through the weekend, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

The exact timing of the storm remains somewhat uncertain, but at least seven earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are currently in transit to Earth.

Rare occurrence in solar cycle

Since the beginning of the current solar cycle in 2019, only three Severe (G4) geomagnetic storms have occurred. The most recent was a brief event on March 23, 2024.

This is the first G4 Watch issued by the SWPC since 2005, highlighting the rarity of such events. The last Extreme (G5) event took place during the Halloween Storms in 2003.

Source of the outburst

The source of this geomagnetic outburst has been identified as a large, complex sunspot cluster named Region 3664.

This sunspot region is currently 16 times the diameter of Earth and is expected to generate additional activity in the future.

Potential Earth impacts from this event

The area of impact is primarily expected to be poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. The following potential impacts may occur:

Induced currents

Widespread voltage control problems may arise, and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents are also expected to intensify.

Spacecraft

Spacecraft systems may experience surface charging, increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems.

Navigation

Satellite navigation systems, such as GPS, may be degraded or inoperable for hours.

Radio

High-frequency (HF) radio propagation may become sporadic or experience blackouts.

Aurora

Auroras may be visible across the United States and the northern hemisphere, as far south as Alabama and northern California.

Stay informed

The SWPC has issued a Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08 with Serial Number: 31 at 1744 UTC on May 10, 2024.

The geomagnetic K-index threshold of 8, 9- was reached on May 10, 2024 at 1739 UTC during the synoptic period of 1500-1800 UTC.

An active warning is currently in place, with the NOAA Scale indicating a G4 — Severe event.

For more information on the NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions, please visit www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation.

As this severe geomagnetic storm unfolds, it is essential to stay informed and prepared for potential disruptions to power grids, satellite systems, navigation, and radio communications.

Keep an eye on updates from Earth.com and the SWPC and local authorities to ensure your safety and minimize any inconvenience caused by this rare and powerful space weather event.

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Update — May 10, 2024 at 9:04 AM EDT

NOAA issues first “Severe Geomagnetic Storm” alert since 2005

The U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, and the Space Weather Prediction Center have reported that solar activity reached high levels over the past 24 hours.

This activity prompted the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to issue a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch earlier today, marking the first such event since 2005.

The CMEs are associated with a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster, known as NOAA region 3664, which spans an impressive 16 times the diameter of Earth. Several strong flares have been detected in this region, contributing to the heightened alert level.

Region 3664 was the primary source of X-ray activity, producing an X1.1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 5:44 PM UTC on May 9 and an X3.9 flare (R3) at 6:31 AM UTC on May 10, 2024.

Both flares were accompanied by strong radio bursts, Castelli-U signatures, Type II and IV radio sweeps, and Tenflares.

Potential issues caused on Earth by impacts

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Potential effects include:

Induced Currents: Power system voltage irregularities and false alarms on some protection devices.
Spacecraft: Surface charging and increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites, potentially causing orientation problems.
Navigation: Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error.
Radio: Intermittent HF (high frequency) radio communication.
Aurora: Northern lights may be seen as low as Alabama in the the southern U.S., down to Iowa in the Midwest, and down to Oregon in the Northwest.

CMEs expected to impact Earth today and through the weekend

The flares generated halo coronal mass ejection (CME) signatures, which are expected to contribute to a train of at least five CMEs headed towards Earth.

Initial arrival is likely between late May 10 and early May 11. The numerous events along the Sun-Earth line have complicated the modeling process, increasing uncertainty in the arrival timing of individual events.

Solar activity forecast: High to very high levels

Solar activity is expected to remain at high to very high levels from May 10 to May 12, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) to X-class flares (R3/Strong) anticipated, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3664.

Energetic particle activity and forecast

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced following strong flare activity from Region 3664 but below the S1 (Minor) threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

The proton flux is likely to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels from May 10 to May 12 due to the location and flare potential of Region 3664. The electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels during this period.

Solar wind conditions and forecast

Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout much of the period, with a minor perturbation observed in the magnetic field after 5:30 PM UTC on May 9.

Solar wind speeds decreased from initial readings near 450 km/s to between 400-425 km/s, total field strength ranged 1-7 nT, and the Bz component varied +3/-6 nT. The phi angle transitioned from positive to variable after 3:00 AM UTC on May 10.

A weakly enhanced solar wind environment associated with CME activity is expected through most of May 10. Stronger disturbances are anticipated from May 11 through much of May 12 due to the expected arrival of a series of halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 between May 8 and May 10.

Geomagnetic field activity and forecast

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on May 10 with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from May 8-10).

The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on May 11, with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming expected and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely.

Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on May 12 due to an enhanced solar wind environment following the passage of the May 8-10 CMEs.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as the event unfolds.

Earth braces for impact from another solar storm

In summary, as the Sun continues to showcase its immense power through high levels of solar activity, Earth prepares for the potential impacts of incoming CMEs.

While the timing of these events remains fairly certain, the magnitude of their effects on our planet’s geomagnetic field is still a subject of speculation.

Regardless of the outcome, this period of heightened solar activity serves as a reminder of the intricate relationship between our star and the technology we rely on daily.

As we monitor the developments in the coming days, it is crucial to remain vigilant and prepared for any challenges that may arise from this cosmic dance between the Sun and Earth.

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Update — May 9, 2024 at 8:24 PM EDT

Very high solar activity, multiple CMEs to impact Earth

Solar activity has reached very high levels, with background flux at or near M1.0. Region 3664 has continued to exhibit growth and has produced two R3 (Strong) and multiple R1 (Minor) events.

This activity prompted the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to issue a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch earlier today, marking the first such event since 2005.

The largest events, an X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were accompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst signatures were observed across discrete frequencies.

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

A halo CME associated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is Earth-directed, with arrival likely on May 11, 2024. Another halo CME, associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is undergoing modeling as of the time of this writing.

At present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over May 8 and May 9, 2024) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from May 8, 2024) are expected to arrive beginning late on May 10th, with the bulk of geomagnetic impacts predicted on May 11th.

The aforementioned CME associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC will likely add to this count upon completion of analysis, making a total of five CMEs likely to impact Earth this weekend.

Potential issues from the CME impacts

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Potential effects include:

Induced Currents: Power system voltage irregularities and false alarms on some protection devices.
Spacecraft: Surface charging and increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites, potentially causing orientation problems.
Navigation: Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error.
Radio: Intermittent HF (high frequency) radio communication.
Aurora: Northern lights may be seen as low as the southern states, down to Iowa in the Midwest, and down to Oregon in the Northwest.

Solar activity forecast

Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over May 10-12, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and X-class flares (R3/Strong) likely, due to the flare potential of Region 3664.

Energetic particle summary and forecast

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after 09/0600 UTC, following strong flare activity from Region 3664, but remained below 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over May 10-12, 2024 due to the location and flare potential of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 10-12 May.

Solar wind summary and forecast

Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout much of the period, with a minor perturbation observed in the magnetic field after 09/1730 UTC.

Solar wind speeds decreased from initial readings near 450 km/s to between 400-425 km/s, total field strength ranged 1-7 nT, and the Bz component varied +3/-5 nT. The phi angle was positive.

A weakly enhanced solar wind environment associated with CME activity is expected through most of may 10, 2024. A stronger disturbance is expected in the early hours of May 11 through much of May 12 due to the anticipated arrival of a series of halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 over May 8-9, 2024.

Geospace summary and forecast

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on May 10, 2024 with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from May 8-9, 2024).

The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on May 11, with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming expected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely.

Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on May 12 due to an enhanced solar wind environment following the passage of the May 8-9 CMEs.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as the event unfolds.

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Update — May 9, 2024 at 5:24 PM EDT

Sunspot cluster 16 times the size of Earth sparks concern

On Thursday, May 9, 2024, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch, marking the first such event since 2005.

This highly unusual occurrence is attributed to at least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed over the past few days.

Multiple strong flares detected

Potential impact on Earth

The CMEs are expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024.

The potential impact of these geomagnetic disturbances on Earth’s magnetic field and technological infrastructure is significant, warranting the Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch.

Rare occurrence in current solar cycle

Since the beginning of the current solar cycle in December 2019, only three Severe geomagnetic storms have been observed.

The most recent G4 (Severe) storm occurred on March 23, 2024, while the last G5 (Extreme) event, known as the Halloween Storms, took place in October 2003.

The G5 storm notably caused power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa, underscoring the potential consequences of such powerful geomagnetic disturbances.

Preparing for the storm

As the anticipated arrival of the CMEs approaches, scientists, government agencies, and the general public are advised to stay informed about the latest developments and any potential impacts on communication systems, power grids, and satellite operations.

Taking necessary precautions and having contingency plans in place can help mitigate the risks associated with severe geomagnetic storms.

While rare, the Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch serves as a reminder of the dynamic and powerful nature of our Sun and its far-reaching effects on Earth.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as the event unfolds.

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