NOAA: Auroras expected in the US this week from strong solar flares

The sun has been exhibiting heightened levels of activity, marked by a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that have captured the attention of astronomers and space weather forecasters alike.

There is no need for alarm from the general public. However, according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, there will be increased aurora activity over the next few days in Canada and the northern and Midwest U.S. states.

This recent surge in solar phenomena has implications not only for our understanding of solar dynamics but also for space weather forecasting, which is vital for satellite operations, communication systems, and even power grids on Earth. The most recent, detailed forecast is below.

Recent solar flares and regions of interest

At the heart of the recent activity is an impulsive M6.5/2b flare that erupted on February 12 at 03:48 UTC from Region 3576, located at the solar coordinates S16W30.

This region, characterized by a complex magnetic configuration known as Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, has been particularly active, also producing a C6.9 flare shortly thereafter at 05:54 UTC.

This latter event was accompanied by a Type IV radio sweep, indicative of significant magnetic restructuring in the sun’s atmosphere.

Another noteworthy flare, an M1.0, was observed from a region just beyond the northeast limb of the sun on February 11 at 22:45 UTC.

This activity underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of the sun’s surface and atmosphere.

The solar regions numbered 3576 and 3583 (N09E22, characterized as Eki/beta-gamma) have been sources of C-class flaring, demonstrating the widespread nature of the current solar activity.

While Region 3576 showed some decay in its trailing spots, Regions 3582 (N06W07, Dai/beta) and 3583 exhibited rapid growth and development, highlighting the volatile and unpredictable nature of solar magnetic regions.

An additional solar event of note was a filament eruption near N28E19, which began on February 11 at 06:40 UTC.

This eruption may be associated with a CME observed off the northeast limb, further illustrating the complex interplay of solar phenomena.

Analysis of recent Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

The CME associated with the M9.0 flare from Region 3576, observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning on February 10 at 23:36 UTC, has been carefully analyzed.

This analysis revealed two distinct CMEs: a full halo CME visible by February 11 at 00:00 UTC and a slower, narrower CME, with the majority of its ejecta directed off the north-northeast limb.

Modeling of these CMEs suggests an expected arrival at Earth early on February 13, highlighting the importance of monitoring and forecasting these solar emissions for their potential impact on space weather.

Solar activity forecast

Looking ahead, solar activity is projected to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) from February 12 to 14, with a slight chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong).

This forecast is based on the current behavior of the sun’s surface and atmospheric conditions, which continue to be closely monitored by astronomers and space weather experts.

Energetic particles and their impact

The recent solar activity has also been characterized by energetic particle events, including a minor (S1) solar radiation storm that peaked at 187 pfu on February 9.

A new 10 MeV proton event, associated with the C6.9 flare, began on February 12 at 08:05 UTC. These events, while minor, underscore the potential for increased solar radiation, which can affect satellite operations and astronaut safety.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at normal to moderate levels, with expectations for this trend to continue in the short term.

However, there remains a chance for further minor solar radiation storm enhancements, particularly in light of the flare potential of Regions 3576 and 3583 and possible shock enhancements from inbound CMEs.

Solar wind and geospace impact

The solar wind has seen fluctuations, with parameters indicating the arrival of a CME that may be related to the X3.3 flare on February 9.

Wind speeds have ranged between 500-600 km/s, with total magnetic field strengths varying. These conditions are expected to be further influenced by the combination of CMEs from February 8 and 10, likely leading to enhancements in solar wind conditions through February 14.

In terms of geospace, the geomagnetic field has been relatively quiet but is expected to become unsettled to active due to ongoing CME activity.

This shift could escalate from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming conditions on February 12, with the potential for active to G2 (Moderate) storming on February 13.

These conditions serve as a reminder of the interconnectedness between solar and terrestrial environments, with solar activity having direct implications for space weather and, by extension, technological systems on Earth.

This detailed overview of recent solar activity from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, its analysis, and forecast underscores the dynamic and interconnected nature of our solar system.

By closely monitoring and studying these phenomena, scientists and forecasters can better predict the potential impacts of space weather and aurora activity, ensuring that we remain prepared for the diverse effects of solar activity on our technological infrastructure and daily lives.

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