Earth's climate danger zones revealed in new global heat map

Heat has dominated the climate headlines in 2024 as the year cements itself in the history books as the hottest ever recorded.

What remains less reported, however, is the uneven distribution of these dangerous, record-breaking temperatures.

Some regions are experiencing unprecedented heatwaves that push human and environmental resilience to their limits, while others remain relatively unscathed.

A recent study highlights how specific regions around the globe are bearing the brunt of this escalating climate crisis and feeling the heat far more intensely than others.

Mapping the hotspots

The study, a collaborative effort by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Columbia University, offers a comprehensive look at where on Earth these temperature spikes are most prevalent.

The research provides the first-ever global map of such high-risk areas, which some researchers have begun referring to as “climate danger zones.”

Study lead author Kai Kornhuber is as an adjunct professor at the Columbia Climate School and leads the Weather Extremes and Climate Dynamics theme of the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program.

“This is about extreme trends that are the outcome of physical interactions we might not completely understand. These regions become temporary hothouses, ” said Kornhuber.

Climate data and extreme heat

The researchers examined data from the past 65 years to identify these hot zones. By analyzing decades of temperature records, they revealed patterns that point to regions disproportionately affected by extreme heat events.

The experts focused on locations where extraordinary heatwave events are occurring at an alarming rate, and surpass average warm-season temperatures overall.

These instances of extreme heat have increased in frequency in the last five years, with occasional spikes since the early 2000s.

Regions bearing the brunt of the heat

Regions severely affected by this rise in temperature include central China, Japan, Korea, the Arabian Peninsula, eastern Australia, parts of South America, and the Arctic.

However, the most intense and consistent heat surges were recorded in northwestern Europe, where they led to the deaths of around 60,000 people in 2022 and 47,000 in 2023.

Maximum temperature records were shattered in Austria, France, Hungary, Slovenia, Norway, and Sweden during these years.

In addition, some parts of the U.S. Southwest and California experienced record temperatures well into October.

While these locales have seen temperatures soar at a rate far surpassing climate model predictions, not all regions have experienced this unprecedented warming.

In many areas, the rise in temperature is, in fact, lower than model predictions. Among these are large expanses of the north-central U.S., south-central Canada, the South American interior, northern Africa, northern Australia, and much of Siberia.

Consequences of extreme temperatures

Extreme heat waves can have serious consequences that impact both people and the environment.

For humans, intense heat can lead to dangerous health problems like heat exhaustion and heatstroke, especially for older adults, young children, and those with preexisting conditions.

Dehydration is another big risk, and heat waves often lead to more hospital visits and even fatalities.

Cities suffer the most because of the “urban heat island” effect, where buildings and pavement trap heat, making temperatures even hotter.

Heat waves also strain power grids as people crank up air conditioning, sometimes causing blackouts when demand spikes.

The environment takes a beating too. Prolonged heat can dry out soil, damaging crops and leading to lower food production.

Wildfires become more frequent and intense during heat waves, destroying forests, wildlife habitats, and even homes.

Rivers and lakes can dry up, stressing ecosystems and water supplies for humans and animals alike. Even aquatic life suffers, as high temperatures reduce oxygen levels in the water.

Extreme heat in a warming climate

“In most areas, the hottest days of the year are warming about as fast as typical summertime days, which is the dominant signal of climate change, and in some areas even slower,” noted study co-author Samuel Bartusek, a PhD candidate at Columbia University.

“In the hotspots that we point out, however, the hottest days have been warming particularly fast, which could be for various reasons.”

In some places there could be more occurrences of specific heatwave-inducing weather patterns, or soil drying could be amplifying the hottest temperatures – and it will be important to untangle these specific local drivers.

“Due to their unprecedented nature, these heat waves are usually linked to severe health impacts, and can be disastrous for agriculture, vegetation, and infrastructure. We’re not built for them, and we might not be able to adapt fast enough,” Kornhuber concluded.

In charting these heatwave hotspots, the study has taken a significant step towards mapping the emerging risk of extreme, unprecedented heat and quantifying our capacity to predict these perilous signals.

The findings open up a new avenue of climate change research and policy-making, emphasizing the need to target interventions and resources to the areas that need them most.

The full study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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