Looking to Earth's ancient climate to predict our future

Amid today’s climate crisis, ancient climate records may hold valuable lessons for our future. By looking into our distant past, we can unlock insights that help address current environmental challenges more effectively.

Although our understanding of Earth millions of years ago remains incomplete, recent research has unveiled a surprising richness in ancient biodiversity, showing how ecosystems once adapted to warmer conditions.

These findings not only deepen our grasp of past climates but also provide a unique perspective on potential future scenarios as global temperatures continue to rise.

A long-term study now offers a detailed glimpse into an ancient ecosystem when our planet was significantly warmer than it is today.

Time travel to the Quebrada Honda basin

Over a decade and a half, a global team from Case Western Reserve University studied an archaeological site in Bolivia-Quebrada Honda Basin (QHB).

Situated in the Andes, this area offers us a glimpse into a time period from 13 million years ago, during the Miocene Epoch – a time when Earth’s climate recovered from the previous era’s cooling, causing a surge in global temperatures and mammal biodiversity.

During the Miocene epoch, the Earth was warmer by 3-4 degrees Celsius compared to today. Drawing parallels between ancient ecosystems and our current climate change predicament can enlighten us about possible future scenarios.

Ancient climate clues for a sustainable future

Darin Croft, a professor of anatomy at Case Western Reserve’s School of Medicine, and the team leader of the QHB research, believes that ancient sites such as QHB are instrumental in calibrating climate models.

“Our understanding of climate change is based on models, and those models are based on information from the past. We are getting into uncharted territory in terms of climate, and you have to go deeper in time to get conditions that are similar,” said Professor Croft.

Initially, the QHB site was lower than its current altitude of 11,500 feet (3,500 meters). However, the exact elevation during the Miocene epoch has been hotly debated among scientists.

Ancient climate and rich biodiversity

The research team discovered various types of fossils at the QHB site, ranging from mammal bones and teeth, plant remains, ancient soils, and even the tracks of insects and other invertebrates.

Cold-blooded animals – including a giant tortoise, a side-necked turtle, and a large snake – suggest that QHB’s elevation during their existence was less than 1,000 meters, based on the current habitats of closely related species.

The researchers determined that the QHB was a dry forest or a wooded savanna with palms and bamboo, both of which thrive at lower altitudes. This ecosystem shared no parallels with any modern landscapes.

Caroline Strömberg, a biology professor at the University of Washington, examined fossilized phytoliths – microscopic silica particles found in plant cell walls, which are characteristic of the vegetation types they’re from.

She compared these with those found in present vegetation to identify the mix of plants at the QHB site.

“Magnifying” the past, the team even discovered 13 previously unknown mammal species, including marsupials, hoofed mammals, rodents, and armadillos.

“Nature has a wide variety of body plans, often much greater than the limited variety we see today,” said Russell Engelman, a Case Western Reserve biology graduate student.

A long-lasting legacy

Between 2007 and 2017, Professor Croft led six international teams to the QHB site with the primary funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Six years after the team’s second NSF grant ended, the research findings continue to be relevant, inspiring follow-up data and publications.

“Field paleontology is a really good investment for the NSF, because the dividends far outweigh the costs,” said Professor Croft. His team now seeks funding to study another Miocene site in Bolivia, of a similar age but over a longer time-period.

This lesson from the past highlights the importance of understanding our planet’s history for the sake of our future.

Knowledge about ancient ecosystems can help us forge a path towards a sustainable tomorrow, as we grapple with the reality of climate change and our role in it.

The study is published in the journal Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology.

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