Insect populations are headed towards widespread chaos in our continually warming world

In a world constantly evolving, new species are frequently emerging from insect populations. Simultaneously, various groups of organisms diverge and follow their own distinct paths. But what transpires when you introduce a variable like climate change into this equation?

This intriguing question has been the central focus of Thomas H.Q. Powell, an assistant professor of biological sciences at Binghamton University, State University of New York, and his research team.

Their recent study, “Contrasting effects of warming in diverging insects,” published in Ecology Letters, addresses this very issue.

The apple maggot fly in a warming world

The researchers focused their attention on the apple maggot fly, an infamous agricultural pest. Back in the 1850s, this fly started to split into two distinct populations in the Hudson Valley region.

One group continued to thrive on the fruit of the local hawthorn trees. However, the other group turned to a new dietary preference. They began eating apple trees, which were brought to North America by English settlers.

Discussing this, Powell said, “The entomologist who discovered this actually corresponded with Darwin about it potentially being an example of the origin of species in real time. It wasn’t until the system was picked back up by researchers in the late 20th century that we found out he was right.”

Their shift in diet also led to a change in the fly’s reproduction schedule. This happened because hawthorn trees fruit three or four weeks later than apple trees.

The shift further impacted several species of parasitic wasps that prey on the maggot fly. Herein lies a perfect example of the intricate and delicate equilibrium that holds ecosystems together.

Studying the impact of warming on insect populations

Powell and his team set out to study these diverse insect populations. They reared both apple- and hawthorn-based flies and parasitic wasps under conditions that mimic the seasonal average from the last decade of climate data.

They then subjected these insects to warmer conditions projected for the next 50 to 100 years. The findings from this experiment hold substantial implications for insect biodiversity.

The two fly populations, despite residing in the same area, responded very differently to the temperature shift. Hawthorn-based flies seemed to have higher resilience. This was likely due to greater genetic diversity.

The apple flies, on the other hand, struggled with their lifecycle getting out-of-sync with their host plant. This mismatch could disrupt their survival and possibly halt the ongoing divergence into distinct species.

However, the parasitic wasps, surprisingly, did not seem affected by the temperature increase. Yet, this could pose serious problems if they lose sync with the lifecycle of their prey.

Disrupting the evolution of insect populations

Natural adaptation might have the potential to restore balance in these disrupted systems over time. However, the limitations on rapid evolution are considerable.

Habitats, for instance, are typically smaller and fragmented, thereby reducing the genetic variability required by organisms to adapt to evolving pressures.

Powell emphasizes the significance of their findings, saying, “It’s not just that climate change is disrupting evolution through the potential breakdown of this classic speciation story, but that the rapid evolution of the flies has a strong bearing on how susceptible they are to climate change.”

He adds a cautionary note, “So, if we’re finding that the effects of these future conditions may be completely different, even for identical flies from the same habitat that have been evolving since just the 1800s, we may see widespread chaos in the ecological timing of insect communities in the coming decades.”

As our climate continues to change, the ramifications on the world’s species and their ecosystems remain a significant and pressing concern.

More about climate change and evolution

Climate change can have profound impacts on the evolution of species. The climatic conditions of an area are among the most critical factors that determine an organism’s survival, reproduction, and distribution.

As climate change alters these conditions, species face new survival challenges that can drive evolutionary changes. Here’s how:

Selection Pressure for Insect Populations and Most Other Species

Climate change intensifies selection pressure, which is the driving force behind evolution. Species must adapt to warmer temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and other shifts in their habitats. Those that can’t keep up risk extinction, while those that can adapt may survive and pass on their beneficial traits to future generations.

Changed Habitats and Migration in a Warming World

As climates change, habitats can also shift. For example, certain plant or animal species might start moving towards the poles or higher altitudes to find cooler environments.

This migration could lead to geographic isolation, which can accelerate speciation – the formation of new species. However, not all species can move or adapt quickly enough, leading to population declines or even extinctions.

Disruption of Symbiotic Relationships

Many species have symbiotic relationships with other species. Climate change can disrupt these relationships and cause co-evolution, a process where changes in one species lead to changes in another. For example, if a plant species blooms earlier due to warmer temperatures, pollinators such as bees must also adjust their life cycles to match. If they can’t, both species may suffer.

Altered Food Webs

Changes in temperature and precipitation can impact the availability and distribution of food sources. This, in turn, can impact the evolution of predator and prey relationships. If a prey species migrates or declines due to climate change, predators must adapt by finding new food sources or risk extinction.

Changes in Reproduction

In some species, climate factors can influence reproduction timing and success. Warmer temperatures can cause earlier breeding seasons or faster egg hatching, which can impact the survival rates of offspring.

Genetic Diversity Loss

Climate change can lead to habitat loss and fragmentation, which can reduce a population’s size and its genetic diversity. This lack of genetic diversity can limit a species’ ability to adapt to future changes and increase the risk of inbreeding and extinction.

It’s important to note that evolution typically happens over a long timescale, and the rapid pace of human-induced climate change might outpace the ability of many species to adapt.

Also, while these evolutionary changes might help individual species survive, they can also disrupt ecosystems and cause cascading effects on biodiversity.