Hurricanes cause thousands of deaths that are unaccounted for

In the United States, hurricanes and tropical storms carry a deadly legacy that extends far beyond the immediate destruction they cause.

Contrary to the official statistics that usually only account for immediate fatalities, new research suggests that these damaging weather phenomena, collectively known as “tropical cyclones,” lead to a surge in deaths that extends over a period of nearly 15 years post-storm.

Uncovering hidden hurricane deaths

Traditionally, official fatality statistics linked to tropical cyclones only account for direct deaths, which typically occur through drowning or other traumatic incidents.

According to official reports, these direct fatalities average 24 persons per storm. However, new research presents a far more disturbing picture of the aftermath of these natural disasters.

“In any given month, people are dying earlier than they would have if the storm hadn’t hit their community,” said study senior author Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

Thousands of excess hurricane deaths

Professor Hsiang explained that after a big storm, there are cascading effects where cities are rebuilding, households are displaced, or social networks are broken. “These cascades have serious consequences for public health.”

Hsiang and study lead author Rachel Young estimate that the average U.S. tropical cyclone indirectly causes between 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths.

The researchers further estimate that tropical storms since 1930 have contributed to between 3.6 million and 5.2 million deaths across the United States.

This is a far greater toll than the 10,000 deaths officially attributed to these storms by government statistics.

Understanding the impact of hurricanes

The study estimates are derived from the statistical analysis of data from 501 tropical cyclones that hit the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from 1930 to 2015.

The experts considered mortality rates for various populations before and after each cyclone.

The research reflects an accumulation of ideas from previous studies that have noted the long-term economic impact of tropical cyclones and the underestimation of storm-related deaths in the immediate aftermath.

The struggle of unequal burdens

The research serves as the first to hint that hurricanes play a significant role in the distribution of overall mortality risk across the country.

The experts found that more than 3 in 100 deaths nationwide are related to tropical cyclones. However, the burden is disproportionally higher for certain groups.

Black individuals, for example, are found to be three times more likely to die post-hurricane compared to their white counterparts.

This highlights the unequal experience faced by many Black communities in the aftermath of natural disasters.

Preparing for future hazards

The long-term surge of cyclone-related deaths tends to be significantly higher in areas that have historically experienced fewer hurricanes.

“Because this long-run effect on mortality has never been documented before, nobody on the ground knew that they should be adapting for this and nobody in the medical community has planned a response,” said Young.

This highlights the urgent need for better preparedness and more proactive planning across affected communities and the medical field.

What is driving the long-term fatalities?

After this eye-opening study, researchers are now working to understand why tropical storms and hurricanes cause these long-term fatalities.

The challenge lies in dissecting the intricate chains of events that follow a cyclone and can eventually affect human health.

The knowledge gained from this research could provide invaluable insights for future policy making, disaster management and climate change adaptation efforts. It is crucial for us to learn as much as we can from these past events.

“With climate change, we expect that tropical cyclones are going to potentially become more hazardous, more damaging, and they’re going to change who they hit,” said Young.

Climate change and hurricane intensity

As tropical cyclones become more frequent and intense due to climate change, the long-term public health consequences may worsen.

Warmer ocean temperatures fuel stronger hurricanes, which can lead to even more devastating long-term impacts on affected communities. With the increasing severity of storms, there could be an even greater surge in indirect fatalities in the coming decades.

The study highlights the importance of improving the ability to predict and prepare for the long-term effects of hurricanes, not just in the immediate aftermath but for the years and decades that follow.

The scope of these fatalities highlights the urgent need for more comprehensive recovery efforts and stronger healthcare systems in regions at risk.

The study is published in the journal Nature.

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