Human life expectancy faces a triple threat 

Improvements in human life expectancy throughout Europe have slowed significantly since 2011, with England experiencing the largest slowdown, according to a new study.

The research, led by the University of East Anglia (UEA), identifies poor diets, physical inactivity, obesity, and the COVID-19 pandemic as major factors contributing to this shift. 

The experts warn that instead of living increasingly longer than older generations, many people now face the possibility of earlier mortality.

“Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th Century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case,” said professor Nick Steel, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School.

Decreases in life expectancy

From 1990 to 2011, lower death rates from cardiovascular diseases and cancers steadily increased average life expectancy across the continent. But the study found that between 2011 and 2019, progress stagnated as major risk factors like obesity, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol either rose or stopped improving in virtually all European nations.

“We found that deaths from cardiovascular diseases were the primary driver of the reduction in life expectancy improvements between 2011–19. Unsurprisingly, the Covid pandemic was responsible for decreases in life expectancy seen between 2019–21,” explained Steel.

Researchers highlight that while improved treatments for high cholesterol and blood pressure have helped, they haven’t offset the harmful effects of increasingly unhealthy lifestyles. 

As the pandemic further eroded longevity figures after 2019, the concern is that people may begin dying younger unless governments take robust action.

Government policies targeting health risks

Among 19 European countries studied, England showed the sharpest reduction in life expectancy growth following 2011, a trend mirrored to varying degrees in the rest of the UK. 

In contrast, some nations, including Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium, managed better resilience. They also had stronger policies targeting health risks and a more favorable record in controlling major cardiovascular threats.

“In contrast, England and the other UK nations fared worst after 2011 and also during the Covid pandemic, and experienced some of the highest risks for heart disease and cancer, including poor diets,” Steel said. 

“This suggests that stronger government policies are needed to reduce major health risks including obesity, poor diet, and low physical activity – to improve population health over the long term.”

Can human life expectancy still improve?

The study emphasizes that rising longevity is still possible. “Life expectancy for older people in many countries is still improving, showing that we have not yet reached a natural longevity ceiling,” Steel explained. By focusing on preventing early deaths – chiefly among younger adults – there is ample room to reduce mortality.

“These results are a cause for concern especially here in the UK, but also some hope,” said John Newton, a scientist at the European Center for Environment and Human Health at the University of Exeter.

“We should be concerned because many European countries including the UK are showing such poor progress but hopeful because addressing the underlying causes of major illnesses appears to be effective if only improvements in the key risks can be sustained.” 

Urgent need for action

Sarah Price, National Director of Public Health at NHS England, said the findings highlight a need for stronger measures to tackle cardiovascular disease and cancer at their roots.

“The slowdown in life expectancy improvements, particularly due to cardiovascular disease and cancer, highlights the urgent need for stronger action on the root causes – poor diet, physical inactivity, and obesity.”

Although the NHS offers weight management programs and widespread blood pressure checks to curb these conditions, Price emphasized that government intervention is crucial to address the broader societal drivers of obesity and unhealthy lifestyles. “We cannot treat our way out of the obesity crisis, and we need to stem it at source,” she said.

Reversing the human life expectancy trend

Overall, the study found that while the European public enjoyed steady life expectancy gains for decades, those gains have lately diminished – mostly due to unhealthy diets, lack of exercise, and the pandemic’s toll. 

According to the researchers, reversing this trend depends on decisive actions, from healthier lifestyle promotion to better policy frameworks.

In short, a coordinated public health response that prioritizes dietary changes, physical activity, and tackling obesity may help restore the upward curve in life expectancy. Otherwise, Europe’s younger generations risk shorter lifespans than those who came before them.

The study is published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.

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