How will climate change affect our outdoor activities?
Understanding the impact of climate change can be challenging when framed in terms of global temperature changes. To make it more relatable, researchers at MIT have introduced a concept called “outdoor days.”
This approach measures the number of days per year in a given location when the weather is suitable for typical outdoor activities – like walking, gardening, or dining outside – without being too hot or too cold.
A localized perspective on global change
In a previous study, the researchers applied the outdoor days concept to assess the impact of climate change across different countries.
The analysis revealed that much of the global south would experience a significant reduction in outdoor days, while some northern regions could see a slight increase.
Building on these findings, the team has now focused on different parts of the United States, dividing the country into nine climatic regions.
The experts found that areas such as Florida and the Southeast may face a major decrease in outdoor days, whereas the Northwest could experience a modest increase.
Connecting climate change to everyday life
“This is something very new in our attempt to understand the impacts of climate change, in addition to the changing extremes,” said lead author Yeon-Woo Choi, a postdoctoral fellow at MIT.
The method aims to show how global climate shifts can directly affect people’s daily experiences rather than focusing solely on overall temperature trends or extreme weather events like hurricanes.
“To the best of my knowledge, nobody else takes this same approach” to assess local climate impacts, he added. “I hope that many others will parallel our approach to better understand how climate may affect our daily lives.”
Climate extremes versus reality
The study explored two climate scenarios: one where global efforts significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a “worst-case” scenario where emissions continue to rise unchecked.
Using these scenarios with 32 global climate models, the researchers found consistent trends across all models. Study senior author Elfatih Eltahir, an expert in climate change at MIT, suggests that reality might fall between the extremes.
Eltahir does not think we will act as aggressively as the low-emissions scenario suggests, or as carelessly as the high-emissions scenario. He predicts that “maybe the reality will emerge in the middle, toward the end of the century.”
Outdoor days across the United States
By analyzing temperature trends from 1961 to 2020 and projecting them to the end of this century, the researchers uncovered notable changes in outdoor days.
The Southeastern United States is expected to face significant impacts, with a decline in the number of days suitable for outdoor activities.
“It seems like climate change is going to have a significant impact on the Southeast in terms of reducing the number of outdoor days,” Eltahir said, which could affect the quality of life, tourism, and retirement appeal in those regions.
Surprisingly, the study revealed that one of the regions that would benefit slightly is the Northwest, though the gain is limited.
The Northwest could see an increase of around 14% in outdoor days by the century’s end, compared to the period from 1976 to 2005. In contrast, the Southwest may see an average loss of 23% in outdoor days.
Outdoor days and economic activities
The study also examined the relationship between outdoor days and economic activities like tourism, using data from U.S. National Park Service visits.
“Accounting for seasonal variations, we find a clear connection between the number of outdoor days and the number of tourist visits in the United States,” Choi explained.
Shifting seasons and outdoor activities
While the total annual number of outdoor days may not change dramatically for many regions, their seasonal distribution could shift.
As summers become hotter, spring and fall might replace summer as the most favorable seasons for outdoor activities. Eltahir notes that this shift is already apparent in places like Florida, where “the really enjoyable time of year is in the spring and fall, and summer is not the best time of year.”
Online tool to measure outdoor days
To allow individuals to explore how changing climates could affect their own experiences, the researchers developed an online tool.
This tool lets users define their own comfort ranges for outdoor temperatures and see how their number of outdoor days might change over time.
For the study, the researchers used a standard range of 10 to 25 degrees Celsius (50 to 77 degrees Fahrenheit), which represents the “thermoneutral zone” where the human body does not need to generate extra heat or sweat for cooling.
“If you disagree with how we define an outdoor day, you could define one for yourself, and then you’ll see what the impacts of that are on your number of outdoor days and their seasonality,” Eltahir explained.
Making climate change more relatable
Eltahir noted that the idea behind the concept of outdoor days came from realizing that people’s understanding of climate change is based on the assumption that climate change is something that’s going to happen sometime in the future and is going to happen to someone else.
“It’s not going to impact them directly. And I think that contributes to the fact that we are not doing enough,” said Eltahir.
By focusing on everyday experiences, the concept of outdoor days aims to make climate change more relatable and immediate.
“It brings the concept of climate change home, brings it to personal everyday activities. I hope that people will find that useful to bridge that gap, and provide a better understanding and appreciation of the problem,” said Eltahir.
“And hopefully that would help lead to sound policies that are based on science, regarding climate change.”
The study is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
—–
Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.
Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.
—–
