How soil moisture can predict severe storms

Storm forecasting has traditionally relied on studying atmospheric conditions. However, new research shows that ground surface conditions, especially soil moisture, can also be crucial for predicting severe storms.

This research, led by meteorologist Dr. Emma Barton of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), reveals that differences in soil moisture over large areas can significantly influence storm patterns.

The findings have the potential to improve early warning systems, particularly in tropical regions affected by climate change.

Impact of soil moisture on storms

The researchers found that soil moisture contrasts across hundreds of kilometers increase rainfall and storm size. This increase ranges from 10 to 30% based on the region and storm size.

These findings provide crucial insight into mesoscale convective systems, which cause flash floods and mudslides in regions with large populations, including Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Australia.

“Mesoscale convective systems are some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet, and are increasing in severity due to climate change,” noted Dr. Barton.

“Rising temperatures could increase the contrast between wet and dry areas of soils, further intensifying thunderstorms in already severely impacted regions.”

Understanding how soil moisture interacts with storm activity is essential for improving both short-term storm forecasting and long-term projections. This knowledge will enable better warnings for communities, allowing them to prepare for approaching storms.

Real-world storm examples

The study’s findings are particularly relevant in regions where severe storms have become more common due to climate change.

Last year, Africa experienced its worst storm season in years. From June to September, West and Central Africa faced devastating flooding, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, the displacement of more than 500,000 people, and the destruction of 300,000 homes.

In Argentina, a severe storm in March 2025 claimed 13 lives and displaced over 1,000 people. It also caused significant damage to infrastructure, including roads and bridges. Similarly, in Bengal, India, a thunderstorm in March 2024 left hundreds injured and caused widespread damage to homes.

Observing soil moisture before storms

This new study utilized two decades of satellite data, combined with soil moisture and storm activity records, to understand storm patterns across several regions.

The analysis showed that soil conditions influencing rainfall can be observed two to five days before storms. This would allow for advance warnings of flash flooding and give communities time to prepare.

Early warnings could help people move to safer areas or take preventive actions, such as clearing drains. These preparations are crucial for minimizing the damage caused by severe weather events.

Shifting focus in meteorology

“Meteorologists tend to focus on atmospheric conditions to predict weather patterns. But, as a growing amount of evidence shows, we should also consider what is happening on the land surface to improve forecasting,” noted Dr. Cornelia Klein, study co-author and meteorologist at UKCEH.

The researchers found that soil moisture differences can create contrasts in air temperatures, which in turn can cause stronger shifts in wind speed and direction at higher altitudes. This turbulence helps storms grow and produce more rainfall over larger areas.

The study also observed similar soil moisture patterns in other regions such as China, Australia, and the US Great Plains.

Tools to improve storm forecasting

In the next phase of the research, scientists will focus on understanding how soil moisture affects storms differently in various regions. This means they will study how soil moisture contrasts in different places and how it influences the behavior of storms in those specific areas.

The researchers will also use advanced climate models to predict how global warming might make storms stronger and more intense in the future. These models will help scientists better understand how changing temperatures affect storm patterns and rainfall.

UKCEH is working on creating new computer tools to improve short-term storm predictions. These tools will be able to forecast storms up to six hours ahead of time. This is crucial for giving communities more time to prepare for severe weather.

These new tools will help meteorological agencies provide more accurate and timely storm warnings, especially in regions like Africa. In these areas, satellite data is already used to monitor weather conditions, including soil moisture and atmospheric changes. By incorporating these new tools, meteorologists will be able to give more reliable warnings.

As a result, communities in tropical and other vulnerable regions will be better prepared to handle the growing risk of severe storms. This research and the technology being developed will help save lives, reduce damage, and improve overall storm preparedness.

The study is published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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