Global population will peak at 10.3 billion by 2085

In the 75 years since the 1950s, the global population has surged from about 2.5 billion to 8.2 billion. The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report projects an increase of over two billion people in the next decade, but predicts this rapid growth will taper off by the mid-2080s.

Global population will peak this century

By 2024, 63 countries, including China and Germany, will have peaked in population, with 126 more expected to peak by the century’s second half. 

“This is a major change compared to the United Nations projections from a decade earlier,” said John Wilmoth of the UN Population Division. 

The current report estimates an 80% chance of the global population peaking before 2100, a significant jump from the 30% chance predicted a decade ago.

Declining fertility rates 

Falling fertility rates, particularly in populous countries like China, drive this revised prediction. China’s population, once the world’s largest, is projected to drop from 1.4 billion today to 633 million by 2100. 

Globally, fertility rates are declining below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, with women having one fewer child on average compared to 1990.

In regions where fertility rates have dropped, immigration may become the primary source of population growth. 

“In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions,” said UN Under-Secretary-General Li Junhua.

Population growth varies by country

Countries predicted to have already passed their peak will see populations decline by 14% over the next 30 years. The UK’s population is expected to peak around 2072 at 76 million, up from 69 million in 2024, then slightly decline to 74.3 million by 2100. 

The US and 126 other countries, including India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, will continue growing until the second half of the century, with nine countries, including Angola and Nigeria, expected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054 before peaking.

Rapid growth rates in poor countries

Kathleen Mogelgaard of the Population Institute highlighted the growing demographic divide, noting that over 100 countries and territories will soon peak, while many poorer nations will continue growing. 

Rapid population growth in low-income countries could exacerbate poverty and hunger, while aging populations in wealthier countries may lead to social care challenges and a shrinking workforce.

Slower population growth and the environment 

By 2080, the UN predicts people over 65 will outnumber those under 18. However, UN Under-Secretary Li Junhua sees a shrinking global population as potentially beneficial, reducing environmental pressures. 

“However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” he added.

Looking ahead, India will remain the most populous country, followed by China, albeit with a smaller population. 

The US will drop to sixth place, replaced by Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Bangladesh in the top ten by 2100. Brazil, currently seventh, will fall to 12th place. 

John Wilmoth emphasizes that the world’s future depends on our behaviors and choices. “What really matters is our behaviors and the choices we make,” he concluded.

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