Global population decline predicted -- what Earth will be like with less people

The number of humans inhabiting the Earth has steadily increased since Homo sapiens began to assert their dominance over the planet. Now, however, the global population growth trend is on the verge of becoming unsustainable.

Historians report that, by the 10th century, the global headcount hovered around a few hundred million.

Later, the Industrial Revolution and better living conditions pushed our numbers ever upward. We soared past 1 billion by 1900 and over 6 billion by 2000.

Not long ago, in late 2022, we crossed the 8 billion mark. Now, new studies suggest this steady climb may soon slow down and, eventually, our population might grow smaller, not bigger.

Global population trend

Some recent findings, published in The Lancet, and relying on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, point to a different future.

According to these projections, by 2050 about 155 out of 204 countries will not have enough births to ensure a stable global population count. And by 2100, almost all of them, around 198 out of 204, will be in the same boat.

This has led researchers to believe that deaths will soon outnumber births in many places, which will shift long-held patterns.

“This is our most comprehensive analysis to date,” said Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

Why does global population matter?

The idea that the world might become a less crowded place raises a few eyebrows, but also a few hopes. Some have argued that thinning numbers might help reduce the strain on certain resources.

There is talk of a demographic dividend, a scenario where fewer dependents and more working-age adults boost economies.

Yet, in many places the total fertility rate has dropped below replacement levels and stays there, without any predicted bounce back. The old assumption that decreasing fertility would fix itself has not been supported by recent data.

When fewer babies are born, the workforce thins out in a matter of decades.

Economic systems depend on a steady stream of workers, consumers, and taxpayers. If countries produce fewer citizens, they may struggle to maintain productivity and keep growth on track.

Economists worry that, as population structures skew towards older groups, tax bases might shrink, and this could make it harder to pay for services that keep society running smoothly.

Some analyses of demographic shifts have shown that countries with aging populations feel strain on their labor supply, which may lead to shifts in markets and wage structures.

Caring for older generations

A decreasing global population also means a rising proportion of older people.

While living longer can be a sign of progress, it also brings its own problems. More older adults need care for chronic conditions, assisted living, and medical services that handle age-related diseases.

Health care systems might need to reinvent themselves to deal with shortages in skilled medical staff and the growing demand for long-term support.

Without enough younger workers, caregiving roles may be harder to fill, putting pressure on families and communities.

Studies have outlined the growing costs of eldercare as populations age, warning that countries must adapt soon or face long waiting times and inadequate care.

Global population and the environment

Fewer humans might sound like a perfect recipe for less stress on forests, oceans, farmland, and energy supplies.

Reduced consumption could mean less pollution, fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and cleaner water in some areas.

But changing population distribution patterns could complicate resource management. If certain places empty out and others remain crowded, it might be tricky to balance who gets what.

Environmental changes also depend on how people live, not just how many there are. Some research suggests that even with fewer people, lifestyle choices still matter for keeping ecosystems healthy and maintaining biodiversity.

Rewriting global influence

As nations experience shifts in their population counts, political and economic influence could get shuffled.

Countries that once dominated trade, technology, or culture might find themselves overshadowed by others that manage to keep younger populations engaged.

Alliances that seemed stable might look different when a partner’s population contracts. This could ripple through security agreements, resource negotiations, and geopolitical strategies.

Realigning priorities might become a necessity as demographic trends change who holds the cards on the world stage.

Rethinking family decisions

Falling fertility rates are often linked to changing social expectations, improved women’s rights, and better access to education.

There is a growing concern that some leaders might try to push quick fixes that harm personal freedoms.

Policies that put pressure on women to have more children present significant risks, threatening reproductive and sexual rights.

In some places, such measures could limit access to necessary services or reduce the freedom to choose whether and when to become parents.

Historical analyses warn that forcing fertility through policy often backfires, causing social tension and distrust.

A new normal

The notion of an emptier planet comes with no simple answers. A world with fewer new births may reshape how we build cities, form families, and secure our future.

It might ask us to be more careful in the ways we manage resources, structure health care, and plan our economies. Planners, policymakers, and communities may need to think ahead, beyond simply counting heads.

The end of nonstop population growth might signal the beginning of a new kind of progress, where success is measured not by the number of people, but by how well we care for one another.

The full study is published in The Lancet.

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