Global CO2 emissions from forest fires have surged by 60 percent

Are global forest fires becoming more frequent and more intense? According to a new study, the answer is a resounding yes.

The research reveals that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from forest fires have risen by 60% worldwide since 2001.

In some northern boreal forests, which are acutely sensitive to climate variances, CO2 emissions have almost tripled during this time frame.

Surge in forest fire emissions

The research explores the concept of “pyromes,” a term used to denote regions witnessing similar forest fire patterns due to comparable environmental, human, and climatic influences.

The aim was to identify the key elements fueling the surge in forest fire activities of late.

One startling discovery was that emissions from fires in one of the largest pyromes, stretching across boreal forests in Eurasia and North America, saw a 50% hike from 2001 to 2023.

This increase was not exclusive to this region, and was also present across extratropical forests globally – contributing to the CO2 output by half a billion tons per year.

How climate change influences forest fires

The study links escalating emissions to a surge in fire-prone weather, such as heatwaves and droughts, and an uptick in forest growth leading to an abundance of combustible vegetation.

Both of these circumstances are amplified by the swift warming in the high northern latitudes – a trend that’s occurring twice as fast as the global average.

This research, led by Dr Matthew Jones at the University of East Anglia (UEA), highlights not just the growing scale of forest wildfires over the past two decades but also their intensifying severity.

Urgency for net zero emissions

The international team included scientists from the UK, the Netherlands, the US, Brazil, and Spain. The experts caution that unless the primary culprits of climate change like fossil fuel emissions are addressed, forest fires will continue to proliferate.

“Surging forest fires globally, both in extent and severity, have led to a dramatic rise in carbon emissions. We’re seeing startling shifts in global fire geography, largely explained by escalating climate change impacts in the world’s boreal forests,” said Dr. Jones.

“To protect these critical ecosystems from escalating wildfire threats, we must keep global warming at bay, emphasizing the urgency to move towards net-zero emissions.”

Global carbon storage and wildfires

Forests play a significant role in global carbon storage, reducing global warming rates by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere.

This makes forests instrumental in achieving international climate targets. Schemes like reforestation and afforestation are aimed at negating human-induced CO2 emissions in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize.

But the effectiveness of these initiatives hinges on permanent carbon storage in forests – a prospect that is increasingly threatened by wildfires.

Extratropical fires are now emitting half a billion tons more CO2 than they were two decades ago. The potential long-term effects are dependent on the capacity of our forests to recover.

Hidden impact of rising wildfire severity

Increased emissions from forest fires stand in stark contrast with the reduced burning witnessed in the world’s tropical savannahs during the same period.

Forest fires burn with more severity and release larger amounts of harmful smoke into the atmosphere compared to savannah grassland fires, posing significant threats to people living nearby and even distant communities affected by declining air quality caused by smoke.

“Our work shows that fires are increasingly happening where we don’t want them to – in forests, where they present the greatest threat to people and to vital carbon stores,” noted Dr. Jones, debunking the prevailing narrative that overall falling annual area burned globally means a declining wildfire impact.

Managing and mitigating wildfires

Machine learning was key to understanding shifting global fire geography. This technology grouped the world’s forest ecoregions into 12 distinct pyromes, making it easier to isolate the effects of climate change from other influencers like land use.

The research provides a fresh perspective on effective strategies for mitigating wildfires and protecting forests.

“We need substantial financing to support strategic programs for forest management, stakeholder involvement and public education,” said Dr. Jones. “The focus should be on a proactive approach, like managing fuel loads at places of highest potential fire risk during favorable fire weather.”

The study received support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), European Commission Horizon 2020 programme, and the European Space Agency.

The study is published in the journal Science.

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