Global childhood obesity rate is expected to soar by 2050

Obesity is not just a health issue anymore; it’s a crisis in waiting, with recent data showing that one in six children and adolescents worldwide could face obesity by 2050.

A recent study published in The Lancet warns of a dramatic rise in childhood and adolescent obesity over the next 25 years.

The projections equate to 356 million children aged 5-14 years and 390 million aged 15-24 years living with obesity by mid-century.

The research, conducted by experts from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI), highlights the urgency of addressing this growing public health challenge before it spirals further out of control.

Rising childhood obesity rates

The situation has worsened over the last three decades. Global obesity rates among children and adolescents aged 5-24 years have tripled since 1990.

Despite numerous attempts to curb this trend, there was a 244 percent rise in childhood obesity rates by 2021, reaching a staggering 174 million.

The harsh reality is that previous strategies to combat obesity may have failed an entire generation.

Jessica Kerr, a researcher from MCRI, expressed concern about the dire future awaiting our youth if no immediate action plans are devised.

“Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic,” said Kerr.

The situation becomes more critical when children cross into adolescence, as obesity is much harder to reverse beyond this age.

Health risks and economic burdens

The implications of rising obesity rates extend beyond health to massive economic consequences.

“This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high body mass index (BMI) – including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenge – will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future,” said Kerr.

She noted that the burden even holds the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.

Australia’s alarming obesity trend

Australia has seen one of the fastest transitions to obesity among children and adolescents worldwide. Girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight.

By mid-century in Australia, an estimated 2.2 million people between 5 and 24 years old could be obese, while 1.6 million could be overweight.

Kerr warned that without a reform in policy, the transition to obesity will accelerate, particularly in regions like north Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean. These regions are already grappling with high population numbers and limited resources.

Prevention of childhood obesity

The specific countries that will bear the brunt of the obesity crisis include the United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru, Tonga, China, Egypt, India, and the United States.

Amidst this grim projection, there is a glimmer of hope. The research also indicates that there’s a chance to avoid this outcome if action begins before the year 2030.

What is needed is a significant shift in focus. National surveys monitoring obesity in children and adolescents should become a priority in all countries.

Kerr noted that adolescent girls entering their reproductive years should be a key demographic for intervention to prevent intergenerational transmission of obesity.

Interventions and societal changes

Professor Susan Sawyer of MCRI urges governments to invest in strategies that address various obesity drivers, including nutrition, physical activity, lifestyle, and the built environment.

It is crucial for governments to regulate interventions such as banning junk food ads that target young individuals, taxing sugary beverages, and funding healthy meals in schools. Urban planning also needs a revamp to promote more active lifestyles.

While individuals and families can strive to balance their physical activity, diet, and sleep, the environment around us often works against these efforts.

“Given this huge global shift in children’s and adolescents’ weight, we can no longer keep blaming people for their choices,” said Professor Sawyer. It is now up to governments to take action and promote an environment that supports healthier lifestyle choices.

The research, which was released on World Obesity Day, utilized data from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

The full study was published in the journal The Lancet.

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