Fewer forest fires happen today than in the past, ironically causes bigger issues

Wildfires have long been a part of North America’s forests, shaping ecosystems and maintaining ecological balance. Yet, recent research suggests that today’s forests burn far less than they did in previous centuries.

At first glance, this might seem like a positive change, but scientists warn that fewer wildfires could lead to more severe and destructive fires in the future.

A study published in Nature Communications reveals that modern forests are experiencing a significant “fire deficit.”

This gap allows flammable materials such as dead wood and dry vegetation to accumulate, setting the stage for larger, more intense wildfires.

The study’s findings challenge the common belief that wildfires are increasing in frequency. Instead, they highlight how fire suppression has created dangerous conditions for both forests and communities.

Fire deficits in North America

The study was led by researchers from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder and the U.S. Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station.

The experts compared wildfire activity between two distinct periods: 1984-2022 and 1600-1880. They also analyzed 1,850 tree-ring records from historically burned areas and compared them with modern fire maps from Canada and the United States.

The results show a sharp decline in wildfire frequency over the past century. Despite recent record-breaking fire seasons, modern wildfires burn significantly less land than they did before 1880.

The researchers found that North American forests currently experience only about 20 percent of the fire activity they once did.

Historically, fire regularly cleared away underbrush, limiting the buildup of dry vegetation. The absence of these smaller fires has created an environment where large, uncontrollable wildfires are more likely to occur.

Fire maintains healthy forests

Fire has long played a crucial role in forest ecosystems. Frequent low-intensity fires, such as those common before 1880, helped maintain a balance by preventing excessive fuel accumulation.

These fires cleared away smaller vegetation while leaving most mature trees unharmed.

“It’s a harbinger for far more bad fires to come unless we can get more beneficial management fires on the landscape,” said Chris Guiterman, a CIRES research scientist and member of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) paleoclimate team.

Before European colonization, Indigenous peoples practiced controlled burns to manage landscapes and reduce fire hazards. These intentional fires were essential for preventing the unchecked growth of flammable materials.

In addition, naturally occurring wildfires – often sparked by lightning – further contributed to this process. This fire-adapted system helped maintain biodiversity and kept wildfires from reaching catastrophic levels.

Fire suppression changed forest landscapes

Over the past century, humans have significantly altered the natural fire cycle.

Widespread fire suppression policies, aimed at protecting human settlements and commercial timber, have prevented natural and controlled burns.

Livestock grazing has also contributed by reducing grassy fuels that once carried low-intensity fires.

As a result, many forests now contain a dense accumulation of fuel. Instead of experiencing frequent, smaller fires that rejuvenate ecosystems, forests are now at risk of massive wildfires that destroy everything in their path.

The shift from regular, low-intensity burns to infrequent, high-intensity wildfires marks a dangerous transformation in fire behavior.

Growing risk of severe wildfires

Even though wildfires burned larger portions of the landscape in the 18th and 19th centuries, those fires were often less destructive.

Many trees recorded the presence of fire in their growth rings but survived to continue growing. In contrast, modern wildfires are so intense that they leave forests barren, littered with dead trees.

The study suggests that these severe fires are a direct consequence of human-driven changes in fire management. Without regular burning, forests have become overcrowded with vegetation, creating a dangerous stockpile of flammable material.

Once ignited, these dense forests burn at extreme temperatures, making them more destructive to both ecosystems and human communities.

Wildfires and climate change

Recent research indicates that modern wildfires are not only more severe but also increasingly linked to climate change. Warmer temperatures, prolonged droughts, and shifting weather patterns create conditions that make forests more susceptible to large fires.

However, the study also suggests that historical fires coincided with drought periods but remained less destructive due to the presence of frequent, smaller burns.

This finding challenges the assumption that climate change alone is responsible for today’s extreme wildfires. While rising temperatures do contribute to wildfire risk, the absence of fire as a natural process plays an equally significant role.

The current approach to fire management, which prioritizes suppression over controlled burns, has made forests more vulnerable to large-scale devastation.

Preparing for a fire-adapted future

Wildfires will always be a part of North American ecosystems. Instead of trying to eliminate fire altogether, scientists and land managers emphasize the importance of adopting strategies that reduce the likelihood of severe fires.

One of the most effective approaches is the use of mechanical fuel treatments and prescribed burns. These methods involve deliberately setting controlled fires or removing excess vegetation to reduce fire hazards.

Research shows that such techniques align with Indigenous fire management practices, which successfully maintained healthy forests for centuries.

“It’s heartbreaking to witness how recent wildfires are devastating people, communities, and forests,” said Sean Parks, research scientist with the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and lead author of the study.

“Wildfires are inevitable, so preparing our forests for these events through fuel reduction treatments and prescribed fire will reduce their impacts to communities and forests.”

Restoring fires for forest health

The study highlights the urgent need to rethink fire management policies. Returning to a more balanced approach – one that includes controlled burns and recognizes fire as a necessary ecological process – may help reduce the severity of future wildfires.

As researchers continue to analyze historical fire patterns, one thing remains clear: fire is not the enemy of forests. In fact, its absence may be causing more harm than good.

By learning from the past and restoring traditional fire practices, we may be able to create a future where wildfires are less destructive and forests remain resilient.

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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