Fading clouds are accelerating climate change

Many people sense that summers are blazing more fiercely while winters are growing strangely mild. Changing cloud patterns and shifting climate conditions raise questions about what is pushing global temperatures to new heights.

Global temperatures were about 1.5 degrees Celsius above predindustrial levels in 2023 and 2024. Experts say a variety of factors, such as El Niño, contributed to this spike, yet these factors alone do not paint the full picture.

Shrinking clouds and a hotter climate

Andrew Gettelman is a scientist specializing in clouds and climate change at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He has been looking at how subtle changes in cloud patterns may magnify the heat.

The research points to fading cloud coverage as a major contributor to global warming in some regions.

Clouds typically work like a natural thermostat. They can reflect sunlight back into space, but they also bounce heat toward the ground depending on their type and altitude.

The idea that certain types of cloud cover are shrinking has gained attention in the scientific community. Observations show that big puffy clouds, which do more cooling, are not lingering as much as they used to.

A shift in the stormy zones

A significant discovery was made based on observations by the CERES instrument (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System), which has been monitoring Earth’s energy balance for more than 20 years.

The results suggest a noticeable contraction of the midlatitude storm zones and tropical rainy areas. In other words, thinner cloud belts in these regions used to have thicker, broader coverage. Scientists believe these narrower zones reflect less sunlight away.

“We’ve always understood that the cloud feedback is positive – and it very well could be strong. This seems to explain a big part of why clouds are changing the way they are,” said George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The research suggests that there has been about a 1.5% drop per decade in some of these storm-cloud regions. This estimate aligns with an ongoing rise in the amount of energy that Earth is retaining.

Researchers track albedo to see how much sunlight bounces back. When albedo falls, more heat stays in our atmosphere.

Scientists say cloud cover is a leading factor behind Earth’s lower albedo in recent years. Less reflection translates into extra warming that was once thought to be missing in the overall climate equation.

A strong climate signal

“We have a really strong climate signal – and from year to year it’s getting stronger,” said Helge Goessling from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany.

Goessling highlighted the link between shortfalls in low-altitude clouds and rising temperatures. 

Even slight drops in cloud coverage can have a ripple effect. Clouds move heat around in complex ways, so less of them can tip the balance toward more warming.

In response to this pattern, scientists are calling for urgent climate mitigation strategies. When these cloud changes overlap with other factors, it becomes more difficult to slow global warming.

Clouds shifting over time

Models sometimes disagree on how clouds will shift over time. Some projections show bigger cloud decreases, while others see more moderate trends.

Experts admit that these small but meaningful shifts could ramp up faster than anticipated. If that happens, temperatures could climb at the higher end of climate forecasts.

Narrower cloud belts also hint at changes in global wind patterns, jet streams, and rainfall. The exact reasons remain uncertain, but a growing collection of research emphasizes how important clouds are in controlling our thermostat.

Monitoring cloud cover and climate

Improved monitoring of cloud cover is crucial. This means tracking real-time satellite observations and using advanced models to spot shifts before they accelerate.

Further research is needed to pinpoint exactly why low-level cloud regions might shrink. A detailed record of local conditions will help refine climate predictions.

Scientists are studying the effects of pollution, ocean temperatures, and airborne particles, as each factor could influence cloud formation and dissipation. Experts stress the importance of considering all these elements together.

The study is published in the journal Research Square.

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