Extreme weather is pushing nature toward a breaking point

Humans are good at using the things that the natural world has to offer. Trees are used for their timber and fruits, bees and other insects pollinate our crops, and mountains bring us peace. But what happens when nature is pushed too far?

As the planet heats up and extreme weather becomes more frequent, we may soon find ourselves counting the real cost – not just in lost trees or damaged trails, but in disappearing livelihoods and shaken communities.

Imagine Colorado’s wildflower meadows scorched by wildfire, or a strawberry field yielding less because heat drives away pollinators. These aren’t just environmental losses; they impact economies, families, and entire ways of life.

As extreme weather becomes more frequent, scientists are asking a new kind of question: How do we measure what we’re about to lose? A recent study led by CU Boulder researchers brings new tools to that conversation.

How extreme weather harms nature

In a paper published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, ecologist Laura Dee and her team introduced a computer model that looks at extreme weather with a fresh perspective.

The model connects environmental damage with economic and social consequences. It’s designed to predict what could happen if violent storms, fires, or floods hit ecosystems that people depend on.

The study’s example is striking: a forest in Minnesota could lose up to 50% of its timber income if a severe windstorm strikes.

“With climate change, there’s an urgent need to incorporate the impacts [that] extreme events like mega-fires and hurricanes have on the benefits nature provides,” said Laura Dee, the paper’s first author and associate professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

“This research is an important step toward anticipating impacts to ecosystem services so that we can adapt management strategies accordingly.”

Understanding ecosystem services

The model focuses on what scientists call “ecosystem services,” which are the direct and indirect benefits that people derive from natural processes.

These include water purification by tree roots, crop pollination by insects, and carbon storage in forests. They also include less obvious values, like the joy of hiking or the cultural significance of a mountain lake.

Traditionally, climate models have treated environmental changes as gradual – things that happen slowly over time. But extreme weather doesn’t follow a smooth path. Wildfires, hurricanes, and floods hit fast and hard, causing damage that lingers long after the skies clear.

Dee’s model fills this gap by focusing on sudden disturbances and how they ripple through both ecosystems and economies. It doesn’t just track what gets damaged – it also accounts for how people value what is lost.

A forest put to the test

To demonstrate how the model works, the researchers applied it to a mixed forest in northern Minnesota. They studied how various tree species – each with different levels of wind resistance and market value – respond to intense windstorms.

For instance, white cedar trees are sturdy against strong winds but bring in less profit. Balsam firs are weaker but sell at a higher price.

The simulation showed a striking result: depending on storm strength, timber value could drop by between 23% and 50%. And timber isn’t the only thing at risk. Hiking, birdwatching, and camping opportunities also take a hit after such damage, further reducing the forest’s value to surrounding communities.

Dee said that researchers and land management officials could use the model to evaluate the impacts of any disturbances, from drought to invasive species.

Reducing extreme weather to protect nature

Dee’s work doesn’t stop with predicting wind damage. Her research group at CU Boulder also looks at fire management. Specifically, they study how prescribed burns – intentional fires set under controlled conditions – can reduce wildfire risks.

The new model supports these efforts by identifying areas where controlled burns could offer the greatest benefits. This includes not only reducing the risk of massive wildfires but also protecting other ecosystem services like clean water and carbon removal.

“Nature’s contributions to people have not typically been valued and are usually left out of key decision-making processes when developing land management policies and strategies,” Dee said.

By offering a clearer picture of what’s at stake, this model helps planners make smarter choices about which lands to protect and how.

A wake-up call for economic systems

This isn’t just about trees and trails. It’s about how we prepare for a future where nature’s disruptions affect jobs, housing, and national economies.

On March 5, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization reported that over 150 record-breaking weather events occurred across the globe last year. The pattern is not only repeating – it’s accelerating.

Dee believes our economic models must change to reflect this new reality. Traditional indicators like Gross Domestic Product don’t account for the value of clean air, stable forests, or functioning watersheds. But as these systems grow more vulnerable, leaving them out of the equation could become a costly mistake.

“If we fail to consider the growing risks from extreme weather events, we could lose more than we realize,” she said.

The value of nature

What if planning for the future required not just spreadsheets and projections, but listening more closely to forests, rivers, and skies? Dee’s model is a reminder that nature’s value goes far beyond dollars.

When we account for it properly, we make better decisions – not just for the environment, but for ourselves.

Extreme weather doesn’t wait. It strikes hard and fast. And with tools like this new simulation, we can at least be ready to measure the fallout and prepare. Because in the age of climate uncertainty, knowing what we stand to lose is the first step in making sure we don’t lose it.

The study is published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution.

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