Emperor penguins may disappear in our lifetime

Climate change has long threatened species living in extreme habitats. Emperor penguins, iconic residents of Antarctica, now face a sharper edge of that threat.

​A team led by scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), along with global collaborators, has revealed new evidence that these birds are more at risk than previously believed.​

The study suggests emperor penguins should no longer be considered “Near Threatened.” Instead, the team recommends reclassifying them as “Vulnerable” or even “Endangered”. This shift, based on updated IUCN criteria, highlights an urgent need to reconsider current conservation strategies.

The researchers tailored their study to match the penguins’ deep dependence on stable sea ice and predictable Antarctic conditions. The changing environment now places them on unstable ground.

Climate threats to emperor penguins

Emperor penguins are at significant risk of extinction due to climate change, particularly the rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice, which they depend on for breeding and raising their chicks.

Studies suggest that if current warming trends continue, more than 90% of emperor penguin colonies could be gone by the end of the century.

Some projections indicate that major population declines could happen much sooner, potentially within our lifetime.

Significance of the study

Published in Biological Conservation, the paper titled Living with Uncertainty presents new tools to predict future risks. The researchers used a cutting-edge method: the Multi-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework.

This approach combines numerous Earth system simulations to capture a fuller picture of possible environmental futures.

“This is the first study to integrate natural variability in physical and biological processes and employ a wide range of Earth system and ecological models to account for numerous sources of uncertainty in projecting assessments of future population trajectories,” said Stéphanie Jenouvrier, lead author and senior scientist at WHOI.

“Improved methods for accounting for uncertainties are urgently needed to strengthen assessments of extinction and inform conservation efforts in an uncertain world.”

The framework improves how scientists handle uncertainty in environmental modeling. Instead of relying on a single future scenario, the MMLE considers many outcomes. This change offers deeper insight into extinction risks.

The world is changing for emperor penguins

To build their models, the team used a wide variety of data. These included satellite images of 50 penguin colonies, long-term monitoring of chicks and adults, and over a decade of observations of individual birds. The researchers also factored in how colonies move, drawn from genetic and population data.

“There are quantifiable uncertainties in projections of future environmental conditions,” said Jenouvrier. “Incorporating this uncertainty in ecosystem projections allows for a more complete and robust assessment of potential extinction risk.”

This approach blends fieldwork, satellite technology, and ecological theory. It gives conservationists a more grounded look at future risks. Such forecasts help shape stronger policies – especially when dealing with species that live in remote or harsh environments.

A model for future conservation

Professor Phil Trathan, one of the study’s authors and formerly Head of Conservation Biology at the British Antarctic Survey, emphasized the broader meaning of this research.

“Emperor penguins are vital indicators of ecosystem health in the Antarctic, they also help inform us about wider changes in the earth system. Therefore, harnessing robust models that increase our understanding about uncertainty and risk are vital, if we are to better conserve and protect this and other species.”

“Ultimately, humans depend upon the natural world, so developing better projections of the future earth system are essential for ensuring human health and well-being. The tools used in this study should now help us all.”

The combination of modeling tools and diverse data points may set a precedent for future work. Other species in similarly vulnerable habitats may also benefit from these techniques.

Protecting emperor penguins

The IUCN plays a central role in shaping how species like the emperor penguin are protected. The Red List guides many conservation decisions, often influencing discussions at international levels.

These include forums like the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) and the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR).​

“The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting serves as a key forum for decision-making on Antarctic conservation. This new IUCN Red List assessment provides critical scientific support for strengthening protections for emperor penguins under the Antarctic Treaty System,” noted Jenouvrier.

”It also strengthens the case for establishing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) under the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, particularly in vital regions like the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea, which could serve as crucial refugia for emperor penguins.”

With the scientific foundation now laid, the next step lies with policymakers. If taken seriously, this reassessment may not only protect emperor penguins but also influence how we respond to global climate threats across species and continents.

The study is published in the journal Biological Conservation.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates. 

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–