Electric vehicles could save billions in health care costs by 2050

New research shows that if electric vehicles (EVs) took over America’s highways, the air quality would improve dramatically, bringing major health benefits for the population.

While it’s no surprise that switching to EVs could boost public health, putting a clear number on those benefits has always been tricky.

But now, a recent study from the University of Toronto’s Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering has provided some eye-opening figures.

Health benefits of electric vehicles

Drawing on the power of computer simulations, the researchers showed that ambitious electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet, complemented by a substantial implementation of renewable electricity generation, could yield health benefits valued between US$84 billion and 188 billion by 2050.

And even in scenarios forecasting less aggressive grid decarbonization, health benefits still scale into tens of billions.

“When researchers examine the impacts of EVs, they typically focus on climate change in the form of mitigating CO2 emissions,” said Professor Marianne Hatzopoulou.

“But CO2 is not the only thing that comes out of the tailpipe of an internal combustion vehicle. They produce many air pollutants that have a significant, quantifiable impact on public health.”

Professor Hatzopoulou further noted that these impacts are disproportionately borne by low-income, racialized, or marginalized populations.

Looking beyond climate change

In previous research, the team utilized their expertise in life-cycle assessment to frame computer models.

The models were used to simulate the impact of widespread electric vehicle adoption on the U.S. market, revealing that although EV adoption positively impacts climate change, it’s insufficient alone to meet Paris Agreement targets.

The latest study aimed to account for non-climate benefits of EV adoption. The team adapted their models to include the production of common air pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, such as nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides, and small particles known as PM2.5.

“Modeling these pollutants is very different from modeling CO2, which lasts for decades and ends up well-mixed throughout the atmosphere,” noted Professor Daniel Posen.

He further added that these pollutants and their associated health impacts are more localized. Thus, it is crucial to account not only for the volume of emissions but also their locations.

Decarbonizing power and transportation

The study also considered a range of scenarios extending to the year 2050. One scenario presumed no further EV production, while the second assumed complete electrification of new vehicles by 2035.

Under each scenario, the researchers evaluated various rates of transitioning the electric grid to low-emitting and renewable energy sources, considering if it remains constant, slows down, or accelerates over the next years.

“Our simulation shows that the cumulative public health benefits of large-scale EV adoption between now and 2050 could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars. But another thing we found is that we only get these benefits if the grid continues to get greener,” said Professor Posen.

This conclusion raises an important question: which should be prioritized, decarbonizing transportation through EV adoption or decarbonizing power generation – the original source of EV-associated pollution?

Combustion vehicles and tailpipe emissions

Professor Hatzopoulou believes it is important to remember that vehicles sold today will continue to be used for decades.

“If we buy more internal combustion vehicles now, however efficient they may be, we will be locking ourselves into those tailpipe emissions for years to come,” said Professor Hatzopoulou.

She argued that while decarbonizing power generation is indeed vital, the process of getting more EVs on the road should not be delayed until it is complete, affirming the need to start on the path to a healthier future today.

Electric vehicles and a healthier future

As we face the challenges of both climate change and public health, electric vehicles are emerging as a real solution.

By cutting down on harmful pollutants and shifting to cleaner energy, the benefits extend far beyond the environment. Our health and well-being stand to improve significantly.

With researchers now able to put concrete numbers behind these gains, it’s becoming clear that electric vehicles aren’t just futuristic – they are a key part of building a healthier, more sustainable future starting today.

The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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