Efforts to control bird flu are not working: Are humans next?

Pandemics are not new to us. We’ve faced numerous ones in history that tested human resilience. And now, we gear up once again to face another looming threat – the H5N1 bird flu virus.

We have a relentless foe hiding in our midst, spreading unseen and silently evolving. A recent study published in the journal Nature has cast a spotlight on the H5N1 virus.

From European fur farms to United States dairy cattle, H5N1 seems to be leaving no stone unturned. But the burning question is – will bird flu cause the next human pandemic?

Evolutionary pathways of bird flu

Zoonotic influenza specialist Dr. Thomas Peacock and his team from The Pirbright Institute have investigated the complex world of virus ecology and evolution.

Dr Peacock, who analyzed the drivers of the current H5N1 avian influenza panzootic, noted that influenza A viruses (IAV) have caused more documented global pandemics in human history than any other pathogen.

“Historically, swine are considered optimal intermediary hosts that help avian influenza viruses adapt to mammals before jumping to humans,” said Dr. Peacock. “However, the altered ecology of H5N1 has opened the door to new evolutionary pathways.”

The sudden expansion of bird flu

The researchers have identified the “altered ecology” of H5N1 as a key driver in its spread. This particular bird flu virus strain is proving to be a formidable enemy, continually evolving and finding novel ways to infiltrate and infect hosts.

“Could dairy cattle, farmed mink, or South American sea lions serve as new mammalian gateways to humans? Here we explore the molecular and ecological factors driving H5N1’s sudden expansion in host range and assess the likelihood of different zoonotic pathways leading to an H5N1 pandemic,” noted the researchers.

Major gaps in our defense

The study reveals weak spots in our current control mechanisms. An apparent hesitation to adopt modern vaccine and surveillance technologies, combined with a lack of consistent data collection around H5N1 transmission between cows and humans on US dairy farms, are causing major gaps in our defenses.

While previous generations of US cattle producers had successfully stamped out foot-and-mouth disease by rapidly sharing epidemiological data, the current scenario seems to have slipped into a data blackout.

Unprecedented gaps in data are leaving researchers, veterinarians, and policy-makers grappling in the dark.

While H5N1 is a reportable disease in poultry, it does not hold the same status in mammals in the US. The Department of Agriculture mandates H5N1 testing only in lactating cattle before interstate movement.

Silent spreaders of the bird flu virus

The current focus for H5N1 monitoring in wildlife is carcass testing, which provides a perfect bypass for the virus to spread silently and undetected among live animals.

So, we are left with a chilling possibility – unseen chains of transmission silently spreading through various avenues.

A process called “genomic reassortment” plays a major role in the current global spread. When two or more viruses infect a host at the same time, they can exchange segments during genome replication, creating novel hybrid viruses.

Turning point for HPAI

The possible continual presence of H5N1 in Europe and the Americas is a significant turning point for High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI). We need to rapidly develop new control strategies, including vaccination.

Stocks of H5 vaccines that are antigenically related to circulating viruses are available and could be scaled up using mRNA platforms for mass production if H5N1 begins spreading in humans.

Bird flu’s threat to humans

The potential severity of an H5N1 pandemic remains unclear. However, recent bird flu infections in humans have shown a lower case fatality rate compared to previous outbreaks in Asia. This could be due to infection through the eye, instead of viral pneumonia in the lungs.

Older individuals seem to have partial immunity due to prior exposure, while younger individuals may be more susceptible to severe disease in a future H5N1 pandemic.

As we stand at the precipice of a possible new pandemic, it’s time for us to buckle up and tighten our defenses against the H5N1 bird flu virus. We must ask ourselves a crucial question – Are we ready to combat another pandemic?

The study is published in the journal Nature.

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