Earth's next big volcano eruption will "cause global chaos" because there is no plan

The volcano eruption at Mount Tambora in 1815, which is in present-day Indonesia, brought with it a climate chill so severe that it ruined harvests and took countless lives. Ash filled the sky, sunlight faded, and global temperatures plunged for months on end.

Today, experts say a large volcanic explosion of similar, or even bigger size, might strike again. This time, because we live in a warmer world, the global aftermath will likely be much worse.

Volcano eruptions in modern times

In 1816, intense cold created what some called a year without a summer. Crops withered, people starved, and entire communities faced desperate conditions. That moment in history stands out because it reveals how far-reaching a single event can be.

Modern civilization seems stronger, but the planet’s population has grown to more than eight billion, and climate change has warmed the Earth. We are no longer dealing with the same environment that Mount Tambora affected two centuries ago.

“The question is not if, but when. The next massive eruption will cause climate chaos, and humanity does not have any plan,” said Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva, who also notes that catastrophic events may be more intense in a warmer world. 

How volcano eruptions cool the planet

Large volcanic explosions have a way of throwing out huge amounts of debris, including rock fragments, ash, and various gases.

Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) has the biggest effect on climate cooling, as it travels high into the stratosphere and creates aerosol particles that scatter sunlight. 

Temperature drops can linger for years. As the planet warms, there is also a concern that faster atmospheric circulation might spread these particles more widely.

Alan Robock, a climate professor at Rutgers University, believes that shifting wind patterns and changes in ocean currents mean these eruptions may trigger greater temperature swings. 

“As the monsoon in the summer happens because the land warms faster than the ocean,” Robock said, “a massive eruption can tip that balance and disrupt the rains that feed millions.”

Connections to past volcano eruptions

Mount Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, propelling an enormous cloud of sulfur dioxide into the sky.

Scientists determined that this eruption cooled Earth’s average temperature by about 1 degree Fahrenheit for a few years. It wasn’t on the scale of Tambora, but it illustrated how short-term climate shifts could happen. 

Earlier eruptions like Samalas (in 1257) and Laki (in 1783-1784) also had strong impacts. Historical records suggest these events caused poor harvests, extreme winters and, in some cases, social upheavals.

Studies of ice cores and tree rings indicate that giant blasts can lower global temperatures even more than Mount Pinatubo managed.

Why warming intensifies the threat

Scientists who study volcanic systems are looking at how melting ice, heavier rains, and shifting pressures inside the Earth might encourage future eruptions.

“The effects might be even worse than we saw back in 1815,” said Michael Rampino, a professor at NYU, who suspects that all these factors could magnify the disruption. 

Lighter ice sheets reduce the weight pressing down on magma sources, which can make it easier for molten rock to move upward. Meanwhile, heavier rainfall might seep deep underground and affect volcanic processes.

Impacts on daily life and food

A sudden temperature drop of just 1 degree Celsius might not sound like a lot, but it comes as an average. Some places could experience chilling conditions that ruin crops across whole regions.

A devastating scenario could see farmland in the U.S., Russia, and China all hit at once, which would lead to a decrease in global food supplies. 

More than 800 million people worldwide live within about 60 miles of an active volcano. That proximity could put major population centers at risk if the blast sends out pyroclastic flows or thick ash.

Possible surprises from the past

Studies of ancient eruptions show that local climates can shift in striking ways. Researchers investigating Okmok volcano in Alaska discovered that an enormous outburst in 43 BC may have cooled parts of the Mediterranean region by as much as 13 degrees Fahrenheit. 

That sort of drastic change, even if temporary, can damage agriculture for multiple seasons. Such disruptions bring disease, hunger, and political tensions, especially if resources become scarce.

What can be done

Specialists do not have a method to stop volcanoes from erupting. Efforts focus on monitoring volcanic areas, improving evacuation plans, and modeling scenarios that anticipate how the ash and gases could spread. 

Some scientists call for international cooperation to manage food reserves and healthcare services if an event like Tambora happens in today’s era.

That includes looking at how to distribute supplies on short notice. Local authorities in active regions often conduct drills and share alerts, but experts suggest more investment in preparedness is necessary.

No one can say exactly when a volcano will produce a colossal blast. Certain sites, like parts of Indonesia or even Yellowstone in the western United States, get attention because they have erupted violently in the past. Yet the signs of unrest may come only a few months or even weeks beforehand. 

Stoffel urges a deeper look at possible future disasters. He advises scenario planning, building stockpiles, and forging rapid-response networks. Such strategies may reduce the shock to global trade and public health.

Details of the research were published in the journal Nature.

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