Droughts and extreme weather events are escalating

Climate change is more than a buzzword; it’s transforming landscapes across the globe, and North America is no exception.

As weather extremes become more frequent, the impact on ecosystems and human infrastructure is becoming impossible to ignore.

Climate change fuels extreme weather

According to new research from The Ohio State University, extreme weather patterns – severe droughts in the American Southwest and Mexico, alongside more intense wet years in the Northeast – are the modern norm. The analysis also suggests these seasonal patterns will become more severe in the future.

The study highlights that the central United States can expect bigger swings between pluvials, or high-rainfall years, and drier summers through the rest of this century.

The findings, based on precipitation data, historical tree rings, and climate models stretching from 850 to 2100, suggest that climate change has pushed North America’s weather patterns toward extremes unseen before the industrial era.

“It’s very much a tale of the Southwest versus the Northeast for most of the seasons,” said study senior author Professor James Stagge.

“Mexico and the American Southwest tend to get drier across more or less all seasons, whereas we’re seeing in the Northeast – and Ohio is included in that – a trend toward wetter, particularly in the winter and early spring.”

Dissecting the data

The study doesn’t just document the present-day shift but traces the pre-industrial patterns to predict future extremes.

“The scale of the change we’re seeing now and into the future is dramatically larger in many areas than any natural climate variability we saw prior,” said study lead author Kyungmin Sung.

This variability is particularly concerning as it introduces unpredictability to weather management.

“You might be going from, say, this year’s drought being really bad, and in five years, we might see the wettest pluvial we’ve had in a while,” noted Professor Stagge. “That variability is concerning because it changes how we might need to manage water to prepare for more extremes in both ways.”

The future of precipitation

The research team merged data from five sources: two modern precipitation datasets, tree ring reconstructions, and two climate models.

“A benefit of having very different types of data is they can fill in each other’s gaps,” said Professor Stagge. “We consider trends to be significant only when they’re showing up across multiple datasets – so that increases our confidence.”

This holistic approach paints a clear picture of the future: the Southwest will continue to experience worsening droughts, while the Northeast will face wetter winters and springs.

At the same time, the central U.S. will see more dramatic swings between wet and dry periods.

The ripple effect

The implications of these findings reach beyond weather prediction – they affect sectors from agriculture to city planning.

“In the Southwest, you’re going to have less water to deal with, and if you’re managing a farm in the middle of the country, you might be seeing wider swings between droughts and pluvials,” noted Professor Stagge.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, emphasizes the urgency of proactive planning to deal with the ongoing climate crisis.

“Certainly, we’d like to arrest further climate change, but it takes a long time to turn that ship. In the meantime, we should be planning on where we’re headed to decrease impacts on people, the economy, and the environment,” said Professor Stagge.

Adapting to climate change

As the data points to worsening weather extremes, the urgency to address climate change grows ever more pressing.

The combination of drier droughts and wetter pluvials presents significant challenges not only for managing water resources but also for sustaining agricultural productivity and protecting infrastructure.

These shifts in weather patterns can strain ecosystems, create economic burdens, and increase the vulnerability of communities across North America.

While curbing climate change is a global priority, local and regional efforts to adapt to these emerging conditions are equally important. Preparing for the inevitable changes is critical to mitigating the impacts on people and industries alike.

From investing in sustainable water management practices to rethinking urban planning and agricultural strategies, adaptation must be part of the solution.

By taking proactive steps now, governments, businesses, and communities can lessen the blow of future climate extremes, ensuring a more resilient and sustainable future for the next generations.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, and the Ohio Supercomputer Center..

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