Doomsday Glacier may collapse sooner than we thought

In the remote, icy stretches of Antarctica, the melting of a massive glacier is picking up speed. This giant, called the Thwaites Glacier, is often referred to as the Doomsday Glacier.

Since 2018, experts leading the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) have been investigating the dynamics of Thwaites.

The researchers have been up close and personal with Thwaites, breaking through ice and using underwater robots to exhaustively study this massive glacier and comprehend its possible downfall.

Retreat of the Doomsday Glacier

The extensive and painstaking research has unveiled some rather disconcerting findings.

Thwaites is not just in retreat, but it’s retreating at an incredible speed that is set to increase in the future, according to Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey and an essential member of the ITGC team.

“Thwaites has been retreating for more than 80 years, accelerating considerably over the past 30 years, and our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster,” noted Dr. Larter. 

Collapse of the Doomsday Glacier

When it comes to future forecasts, optimism is scarce. The scientists predict that Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could completely collapse within the next 200 years.

The Doomsday Glacier contains enough water to boost global sea levels by more than 2 feet. This amount of sea level rise could put coastal communities underwater worldwide, from Miami and London to Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands.

Making matters even worse is the fact that Thwaites acts similarly to a cork, preventing the colossal Antarctic Ice Sheet from cascading into the ocean. The collapse of the Doomsday Glacier could ultimately cause sea levels to rise by a staggering 10 feet.

Grounding line of the Thwaites Glacier

Thwaites Glacier, with its mammoth size and perplexing characteristics, presents a formidable challenge to scientists.

The terrain slopes downwards, exposing more ice to the comparably warmer ocean water as it melts. To navigate these unique features, the researchers have been using innovative technologies such as Icefin, an underwater robot shaped like a torpedo.

Icefin was dispatched to the grounding line of the Thwaites Glacier. This is the precarious point where the glacier parts from the seabed to float.

The first sight of the grounding line through Icefin was a landmark moment, equal to the emotional impact of the moon landing, according to Kiya Riverman, a glaciologist at the University of Portland.

Fast-paced melting of Thwaites

Images relayed back from Icefin revealed that the glacier is melting in unforeseen ways. Warm ocean water is seeping through deep crevices and stair-like formations in the ice, destabilizing the glacier.

But the discoveries didn’t end there. The scientists also used satellite and GPS data to study the effects of tides, finding that seawater was able to push over 6 miles beneath Thwaites. This intrusion of seawater froths warm water under the ice, prompting fast-paced melting.

These discoveries led to further investigations into Thwaites’ past through the analysis of marine sediment cores. Julia Wellner, a professor at the University of Houston, determined that Thwaites began its rapid retreat back in the 1940s, most likely triggered by a strong El Niño event.

Irreversible retreat of Thwaites

Despite Thwaites‘ rapid retreat, there was a glimmer of hope amongst the otherwise grim discoveries. Computer simulations revealed that the chances of ice shelves collapsing, setting off a domino effect of plunging ice cliffs into the ocean, are lower than previously feared.

But the Doomsday Glacier is far from secure. Scientists predict that Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet behind it could vanish by the 23rd Century.

Regardless of whether humans manage to stop burning fossil fuels soon – which isn’t currently in the cards – it may unfortunately be too late to prevent the collapse of the Doomsday Glacier.

Unified effort against climate change

The potential fate of the Thwaites Glacier underlines the vital need for a worldwide response to climate change. Collaborative projects like the ITGC are crucial for pooling global expertise and resources.

To tackle the challenges posed by Thwaites, scientists are sharing data and conducting interdisciplinary research spanning oceanography, geology, and climate science.

This united effort provides a glimmer of hope that through collective innovation, humanity can devise effective strategies to alleviate the impacts of rising seas and climate change.

Vulnerable regions of Antarctica

Thwaites Glacier gets a lot of attention because it could impact global sea levels, but we should also look at other vulnerable areas in Antarctica. The way different glaciers interact with the Southern Ocean is a tricky puzzle that researchers are working to figure out.

By understanding these dynamics, scientists aim to better predict scenarios and timelines for global sea level rise. This research also informs climate policies and adaptation strategies for coastal cities worldwide.

Uncertainty about the future

As this phase of the ITGC’s profound research concludes, the team emphasizes the need for further studies to truly understand this complex glacier.

“While progress has been made, we still have deep uncertainty about the future,” said Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California, Irvine and part of ITGC. “I remain very worried that this sector of Antarctica is already in a state of collapse.”

Image Credit: NASA/James Yungel

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