Culling is not effective in preventing crocodile attacks 

Crocodile culling in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia is a controversial practice aimed at managing the population of saltwater crocodiles, which have been increasing since they were protected by law in 1971. The primary focus of culling is to ensure public safety, particularly in areas where there is a high risk of crocodile attacks on humans.

A new study published in the journal People and Nature reveals that education and community awareness, the removal of problematic crocodiles, and the designation of exclusion areas are significantly more effective in reducing saltwater crocodile attacks than widespread culling. 

The research, led by Charles Darwin University (CDU), challenges the notion that culling is a cost-effective or efficient solution to mitigating crocodile attacks.

Analyzing the rate of crocodile attacks 

The experts examined the correlation between the density of crocodile populations and human populations and the frequency of saltwater crocodile attacks in the Northern Territory over the past 50 years. Data analysis showed that from 1979 to 2022, there were 76 crocodile attacks in the region, with 30% of these attacks resulting in fatalities.

Interestingly, while both crocodile density and the human population continued to rise, the rate of crocodile attacks stabilized from 2009 onwards, with a notable 10% decrease in the frequency of attacks over the following decade. 

This trend suggests that the behaviors of Northern Territory residents and tourists around waterways have adapted in response to the growing crocodile population, largely due to government-led education programs and efforts to remove problem crocodiles.

Crocodile culling is not the best strategy 

Lead author Cameron Baker, a postdoctoral research fellow at CDU’s Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, highlighted the fact that the reduction in attacks correlates with increased awareness and the targeted removal of problem crocodiles. 

These strategies have proven to be more effective in reducing attacks than any broad-scale culling program, a method periodically considered in the Northern Territory.

“Our models predicted that the NT crocodile population would have to be reduced by as much as 90% to reduce the crocodile attack frequency by one attack per year,” Baker explained. 

“If widespread culling to reduce density was the prime strategy to reduce crocodile attacks, then the population would need to be driven to very low levels to see any significant reduction. This is because the risk of attacks on humans only decreases once large crocodiles are completely extirpated from an area.”

The downside of crocodile culling 

According to Baker, such extensive culling would not only push the species back into the critically endangered category but would also be prohibitively expensive. Humane culling operations, based on the current Northern Territory crocodile management budget, would cost approximately $975 per crocodile. 

“Assuming these operational costs remained constant throughout the culling period, it would cost $87,750,000 to cull 90% of the NT crocodile population humanely, achieving a 48% reduction in crocodile attack frequency,” he said.

In contrast, the Northern Territory Government spent AUD$250,000 on the “Be Crocwise” educational campaign between 2013 and 2016. Since its implementation in 2009, this campaign has contributed to a 10% decrease in crocodile attacks, demonstrating a far more cost-effective approach than culling.

Human behavior and crocodile attacks 

Baker further noted that the data indicated crocodile attacks were influenced by human behavior and activities near water. “Between 2011 and 2021, humans were 363 times more likely to be severely injured or killed in a motor vehicle accident than by a crocodile in the NT,” he said. 

“Most victims of crocodile attacks, 90%, were local to the NT. This highlights the importance of modifying human behavior to reduce the risks of attacks by large predators such as crocodiles.”

Alternative crocodile management methods 

Professor Hamish Campbell, who led the study, stressed the need for an evidence-based approach to crocodile management. 

“Crocodiles are a danger to humans in North Australia, and this risk needs to be managed. The funds available for crocodile management are limited, and we need to spend these in the most effective manner to reduce crocodile attacks on humans, and the evidence shows that widespread culling is not a cost-effective nor efficient means of doing this,” he said. 

“Alternative management methods currently used by the Northern Territory government seem to be working and effective.”

Broader implications of the study 

Vinay Udyawer from the Australian Institute of Marine Science, who also contributed to the research, noted that the study’s findings could inform other predator mitigation strategies. 

“The results of this study can be expanded beyond just the management of crocodiles in the Northern Territory,” he said. “It highlights the general ineffectiveness of culling as a primary mitigation tool and the importance of alternative strategies like public education campaigns for managing the risks posed by other large marine predators such as sharks.”

The findings underscore the effectiveness of targeted, evidence-based approaches over broad, less effective measures, offering valuable insights for managing human-wildlife interactions in various contexts.

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