COVID vaccine strategy paid off - and it’s still saving lives

Five years ago, as the world reeled from the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, the first volunteers lined up to test what would become a groundbreaking vaccine. Within a year, tens of millions of Americans had received at least one dose – free of charge. Now, new research shows that decision paid off in many ways.

A new study led by researchers at the University of Michigan (U-M), has confirmed that the U.S. national COVID-19 vaccination strategy not only saved lives but also saved money – making it a rare example of a public health effort that fully paid for itself, and then some.

A worthwhile national investment

“All in all, we can safely say that this was a prudent investment for the American people, using a really conservative analysis,” said Lisa Prosser, lead author of the study and a professor at the U-M Medical School and School of Public Health.

“From a broader societal economic perspective, and from the perspective of medical care costs, the federal government’s decision to accelerate vaccine testing, buy large quantities of vaccine, and support the cost of vaccination in many settings was wise.”

The study assessed not only how much was spent on testing, distributing, and administering the vaccine, but also what the country saved in return – from reduced hospitalizations and emergency care, to fewer cases of long COVID, and even fewer work days lost.

Breaking down the savings

The research team, including senior author David Hutton from U-M, created a comprehensive economic model to evaluate the costs and benefits of the vaccine rollout during its first year.

The analysis included factors such as: the price of the vaccine and associated delivery costs, medical care for various degrees of illness, costs related to testing, rare vaccine side effects, the impact of long COVID, and productivity losses from illness and death.

Even when productivity losses weren’t factored in, the strategy was cost-saving for most adults over 40. And for younger adults aged 18 to 39 – who tend to have milder COVID cases – the vaccine program still proved cost-effective by national standards.

Thus, since the vaccines reduced how many people developed serious illnesses or died, the U.S. saved more money than it spent.

A conservative estimate

The researchers emphasize that their findings likely underestimate the true financial benefits. The model doesn’t include a number of indirect costs, such as unpaid family caregiving, patients’ out-of-pocket expenses, or transportation to and from medical facilities.

The model also didn’t include the government’s decades-long investment in basic mRNA research that paved the way for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, nor the broader economic damage a deadlier pandemic might have caused.

According to Prosser, since the model uses conservative estimates, the amount of the savings may in fact be even larger than the study reports.

COVID vaccines still matter in 2025

While the early years of the pandemic saw record numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, the situation in 2025 is markedly improved. Vaccination and improved treatments have brought down the death toll – but the virus hasn’t disappeared.

Still, 800 to 1,000 people have died of COVID-19 every week of 2025 for which full data is available. Additionally, approximately 1% of all emergency department visits in recent months have been for COVID-19.

Guidance for COVID vaccines

The CDC currently recommends that everyone over the age of six months receive at least one dose of one of the three updated COVID-19 vaccines, which have been revised annually since 2023. As of now, about 30 million people have followed that recommendation.

Among those at highest risk – people aged 65 and older – vaccination rates hover around 30%, a figure that public health officials hope to increase.

For those in that group, or for people who are immunocompromised, the CDC recommends a second dose six months after the first. That means individuals who received their updated vaccine in September 2023 are due for another.

Future research directions

The U-M team has continued its work by modeling the cost-effectiveness of additional waves of vaccination after 2021 in collaboration with the CDC. They hope to develop models for future vaccine updates, depending on funding and data availability.

The research confirms that the benefits of vaccination extend beyond health and safety – they’re also a smart economic choice. As Prosser put it, this was a prudent investment for U.S. citizens.

The study is published in the journal Vaccine.

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