Cocoa production in Africa is under extreme climate pressure 

Climate change is substantially affecting cocoa production in West and Central Africa, a region that accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa output. 

Rising temperatures and altering rainfall patterns are projected to make some areas less suitable for cultivating cocoa, while allowing other areas to potentially increase their yields.

This is the conclusion of a recent study conducted by Wageningen University & Research (WUR).

Major shifts in key producing nations

Researcher Paulina Asante and her team employed a computer model to project how cocoa farming might fare by 2060 in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. 

The findings suggest that up to 50% of the land currently dedicated to cocoa in the Ivory Coast might become unviable, leading to a marked drop in production. 

In Ghana, the study predicts a moderate loss of optimal cocoa-growing zones. By contrast, Nigeria and Cameroon may see an expansion in suitable areas. 

According to the study, Cameroon’s output could climb by as much as 60%, while Nigeria could experience a roughly 40% increase.

The research highlight how divergent effects across neighboring countries could influence global cocoa markets. Some places may find opportunity in the shifting climate, but others risk having to phase out cocoa farming altogether.

Risk of increased deforestation

With cocoa potentially migrating into new regions, concerns arise over environmental pressures and habitat loss, notes WUR researcher Niels Anten. 

“Cameroon has a relatively large amount of rainforest, and cocoa is often grown in areas that were originally tropical forests. This puts significant pressure on these ecosystems,” he said.

“Addressing the impact of climate change on cocoa requires an all-hands-on-deck approach. It affects every stage of the supply chain: farmers face reduced yields, businesses encounter rising costs, and consumers see higher prices,” added Asante.

“While collaboration can be challenging, it is crucial to help current production regions adapt and maintain production on existing plantations. This will prevent cocoa-related deforestation elsewhere and ensure that deforestation-free policies, like the EU law EUDR, deliver meaningful outcomes.”

Climate projections and cocoa production

The simulations rely on existing knowledge about cocoa’s biological responses alongside climate scenarios for West and Central Africa. 

Nonetheless, researchers say there are still gaps in understanding. One unknown is the effect of extra atmospheric CO₂, which tends to boost photosynthesis and might partially offset damage from high temperatures and drought. The scale of that offset remains unclear.

Additionally, aspects like changes to flowering and fruiting times, as well as the evolution of pests and diseases under warmer conditions, still need further research. 

The authors emphasize that this kind of inquiry should not be limited to cocoa alone: more efforts are needed to anticipate how other crops will cope with rising global temperatures.

Climate adaptation for cocoa farmers

For smallholder farmers in West Africa, who already earn modest incomes and often lack resources, even modest climate shifts could be drastic.

The authors call for productivity gains on existing farmland to mitigate these threats, pointing out that actual cocoa yields are far below their theoretical maximums.

Improved soil fertility management and carefully calibrated fertilizer use offer practical ways to narrow these yield gaps. 

Agroforestry, where cocoa grows alongside other tree species, also shows promise. Shade trees can moderate temperature extremes, regulate humidity, and add new revenue streams to farmers’ operations.

“Choosing the right shade trees is essential. Some trees use too much water, exacerbating drought issues. It is crucial to select species suited to the local climate and soil conditions,” said Danaë Rozendaal, another researcher on the project. 

Additional strategies include breeding cocoa plants resistant to drought and heat, as well as supporting farmers with practical training.

Outlook on chocolate and prices

This research was produced through collaboration among several WUR groups – the Center for Crop Systems Analysis, Plant Production Systems Group, and Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group – together with cocoa industry partners, research institutions, NGOs, and local governments under the CocoaSoils program.

Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are already placing cocoa trees under stress, particularly in the Ivory Coast, resulting in reduced harvests. 

Consumer chocolate prices have risen in response, with some confectioners adding ingredients like cookie pieces to stretch their cocoa supply.

“I don’t think cocoa will become so scarce that chocolate letters will only be visible under a microscope in the future,” Anten said, “but the sector must adapt to the changing climate.”

The research into climate-related impacts on cocoa production across West and Central Africa is ongoing. Current studies are evaluating whether this core cocoa-producing region can keep up with climbing global demand while upholding EUDR requirements.

The study is published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.

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