Climate extremes in 2024: What have we learned?

The year 2024 has been marked by a series of extreme weather events that forced billions of people to face the harsh reality of a changing climate.

Persistent droughts gripped southern Africa and Central America, while devastating floods swept through Spain. In the Southeast U.S., Hurricane Helene unleashed its fury.

An international team of scientists led by Dr. Wenxia Zhang analyzed these events as part of a study published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

The study highlights the year’s notable extremes – rainfall, flooding, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The researchers examined their causes, the role of global warming, and the challenges of building a climate-resilient future.

“Most extreme events have a large random element,” said Dr. James Risbey of CSIRO. “Some extremes are more likely when larger-scale drivers such as ENSO influence weather patterns.”

Role of El Niño and climate change

El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, influenced many of 2024’s extreme rainfall and drought events, particularly during the winter of 2023/24.

However, El Niño alone does not explain the severity of these events. Attribution science has revealed that human-induced climate change has amplified the impacts of such natural patterns, making extreme weather more intense and destructive.

“The climate change influence can be direct through physical processes causing the extreme, or indirect in influencing the weather, large scale drivers, and key baselines,” explained Dr. Risbey.

Dr. Zhang, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, noted that anthropogenic warming enhances atmospheric moisture and evaporation, intensifying rainfall and droughts.

Challenges in understanding climate extremes

Attribution science, which studies the role of climate change in specific extreme weather events, has made significant progress.

However, challenges remain, particularly when observed weather extremes do not match predictions from climate models. These inconsistencies reduce confidence in the results and make it harder to draw precise conclusions about the role of human-induced climate change in individual events.

Dr. Michael Brody of George Mason University emphasizes that improving our ability to attribute extreme events to climate change requires a deeper understanding of how climate systems work.

Enhanced attribution methods can provide more reliable insights, which are crucial for shaping recovery efforts after disasters and creating better preparedness plans for the future.

Accurate attribution enables decision-makers to allocate resources effectively, minimize risks, and build resilience in vulnerable communities.

Forecasting and warning systems

Forecasting and effective warnings can save lives. While Hurricane Helene was well-predicted, its impact exposed vulnerabilities in underprepared communities.

“Increasing the quality of forecasts is important, but acting upon them to reduce vulnerabilities is crucial,” said Dr. Piotr Wolski of the University of Cape Town.

The devastating floods in Spain during October 2024 highlight the critical need to reduce the impacts of extreme weather and strengthen community resilience towards climate change.

Such disasters often result in widespread frustration and anger, especially when people feel unprepared or unsupported.

Dr. Wolski stresses that simply issuing warnings is not enough. It is essential to ensure that these warnings are communicated clearly, reach those at risk, and are acted upon effectively. By taking these steps, we can address vulnerabilities, reduce harm, and help communities recover more quickly.

The events in Spain serve as a reminder that better preparation and response systems are vital to managing the challenges of a changing climate.

Preparing for climate extremes

The events of 2024 highlight the growing urgency to understand and address the causes of extreme weather.

Climate change has made such events more intense and frequent, impacting millions of lives and communities. To reduce these effects, it is crucial to develop better systems for predicting extreme weather, ensuring that warnings reach people effectively and on time.

Clear communication and quick action can make a significant difference in saving lives and minimizing damage when disasters strike.

Embracing climate resilience

Additionally, adopting climate resilience – measures that help communities prepare for and adapt to changing climate conditions – offers a proactive way to reduce vulnerabilities and build safer, more sustainable futures.

As extreme climate events grow more unpredictable and severe, our ability to predict and respond quickly will determine how well we can protect lives and adapt to these challenges.

Embracing climate resilience means not just responding to disasters but preparing for them in ways that safeguard people and their livelihoods in an increasingly unstable world.

The study is published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

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