Climate experts predict global warming will far exceed Paris goals

Most climate scientists predict a more drastic global warming increase than what the 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit, according to a study led by Concordia University.

The goal of the international treaty is to limit global temperature rise this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The more ambitious target is to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Global warming forecasts

The climate experts surveyed, all of whom are authors for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), showed a hint of optimism despite their concerning prediction.

Two-thirds feel we can accomplish net-zero CO2 emissions in the latter half of the 21st century, suggesting that our mitigation efforts have the potential to appropriately steer the emissions curve.

CO2 removal also received acknowledgment, with a median response suggesting that technology could help remove up to five gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) per year by 2050. However, this figure sits at the lower end of what is believed to be necessary to meet the Paris targets.

Insights from climate experts

Led by Seth Wynes, the study aimed to uncover how some of the world’s leading climate experts perceive potential climate outcomes. Now an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo, Wynes was a former postdoctoral fellow at Concordia University.

“These scientists also engage in important climate change communication, so their optimism or pessimism can affect how decision-makers are receiving messages about climate change,” noted Wynes.

Global warming predictions

The survey, which involved 211 respondents, revealed a general pessimism about hitting the Paris targets with current policies.

A staggering 86% of the experts estimated a warming above 2˚C (3.6°F) by 2100, with the median estimate of 2.7˚C (4.9°F) possessing potential catastrophic consequences for our world.

Nonetheless, this estimate should not be seen as an inevitable outcome, noted study co-author Damon Matthews.

“These responses are not a prediction of future warming, but rather a gauge of what the scientific community believes,” said Matthews, a professor in the Department of Geography, Planning and Environment at Concordia.

Beliefs, biases, and global warming

The respondents were also asked to estimate their peers’ responses to the same questions. There was a strong correlation between what the scientists believed and what they sense their colleagues to believe, said Wynes

“They had a bias to see their beliefs as representative of the larger group. This can indicate an overconfidence in their own beliefs, so we think this is a good opportunity for them to reevaluate what their peers actually believe.”

Effective climate change communication

The way climate scientists communicate their findings to the public and policymakers plays a crucial role in shaping the global response to climate change.

This communication on global warming is not merely the transmission of facts but also involves conveying a sense of urgency and possible solutions to mitigate the impact.

Effective climate change communication can motivate policy changes, bolster public support for environmental initiatives, and encourage individual action towards sustainable practices.

However, the inherent uncertainties and variances in expert predictions pose challenges in maintaining a balanced narrative. It is essential for communicators to acknowledge these uncertainties while still emphasizing the critical need for immediate action to prevent the most severe outcomes.

Innovations in mitigation strategies

Amid these daunting projections lies a burgeoning field of innovation focused on climate change mitigation. Advances in renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and geothermal technologies, offer promising pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

These developments are coupled with breakthroughs in battery storage and smart grid technology, which are essential for the stabilization and integration of clean energy into existing power systems.

Furthermore, the potential of emerging technologies for direct air capture and carbon sequestration holds promise for addressing emissions beyond just reduction, allowing for the actual removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

As these technologies evolve, they must be supported by robust policy frameworks and public-private partnerships to achieve scalable impacts. In doing so, society can hope to bridge the gap between current trajectories and the ambitious goals set forth by the Paris Agreement.

Differing perspectives on global warming

While climate scientists’ verdicts on possible climate scenarios are valuable, Matthews – an IPCC author himself – acknowledges the important role of differing perspectives in addressing global warming and climate change.

Matthews recognizes that policy implementation and societal reform will determine the rate of emissions reduction.

“The decision as to what we do and how we respond to the climate challenge is up to policymakers and the public that they represent, and I think the full range of outcomes is still very much on the table,” said Matthews.

Contributing authors to this paper include Steven Davis of Stanford University, Mitchell Dickau and Susan Ly at Concordia University, Edward Maibach at George Mason University, Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, and Kirsten Zickfeld at Simon Fraser University.

The study is published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. 

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