Clear air turbulence expected to intensify in a warmer climate

Clear air turbulence, the invisible peril haunting the skies, is expected to intensify with climate change, scientists warn.

As our climate heats up, this silent troublemaker has been studied extensively. Researchers have determined that from 1980 to 2021, the frequency of clear air turbulence increased in the Northern Hemisphere. Now, it’s predicted to become even more common due to global warming.

This might be a bolt from the blue for many, as clear air turbulence is generally unexpected and, unlike other turbulence types, difficult to detect and avoid.

Birthplace of clear air turbulence

Occasionally, aircraft flying through jet streams encounter surges of volatile, upwards-moving air known as vertical wind shear, which leads to turbulence.

Now, as Earth’s climate continues to warm up, we can expect an increase in both the speed of jet streams and the prevalence of vertical wind shears, heralding a likely rise in turbulence incidents.

A recent study involved the analysis of extensive data sets and comprehensive model simulations. The results of the study suggest that the frequency of clear air turbulence will increase in most jet stream-affected regions, especially North Africa, East Asia, and the Middle East.

Danger of clear air turbulence

The dangers associated with turbulence might be well-known to those who frequently fly, but clear air turbulence, being invisible and unpredictable, poses a unique threat.

“Clear air turbulence is the main cause of aviation turbulence, causing approximately 70% of all weather-related accidents over the United States,” explained Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading.

Foudad and his team have been leading the research into this phenomenon, including the potential impacts of climate change.

“We now have high confidence that climate change is increasing clear air turbulence in some regions,” noted Foudad. Aviation engineers need to take this into account when designing future aircraft.

Turbulence trends: Predicting the intensity

The team of scientists led by Foudad used 11 climate models to decipher past and future shifts in clear air turbulence.

The researchers performed 20 computer simulations based on potential future warming increases, from 1 degree Celsius (equivalent to current warming) to 4 degrees Celsius.

Upon reanalyzing atmospheric data from 1980 to 2021, they discovered that moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence swelled by approximately 60 to 155 percent over North Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific.

Navigating the invisible threat

While forecasting clear air turbulence is both difficult and costly, an upswing could present safety issues for aircraft.

According to the researchers, further analyses could reveal whether future flights might be safer cruising at altitudes higher or lower than the current norm.

Nonetheless, the good news is that modern aircraft are built to withstand potent turbulence. “We will see more of these accidents, but people should also be aware that aircraft are designed to resist the worst turbulence that could happen,” noted Foudad.

To navigate the skies safely amidst the challenges posed by climate change, collaboration across scientific, engineering, and aviation fields is crucial.

Strategies for safer flights

As the threat of clear air turbulence grows due to climate change, it becomes essential to develop strategies that enhance safety for both passengers and crew.

Airlines and aviation authorities are exploring various approaches to better predict and manage turbulence encounters.

One promising method involves the integration of advanced weather forecasting systems that utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze atmospheric conditions in real time. These systems can provide pilots with timely alerts about potential turbulence, allowing them to adjust flight paths proactively.

Additionally, equipping aircraft with better sensors that detect changes in air pressure and wind patterns could help in identifying turbulence before it becomes a significant issue.

In collaboration with meteorological agencies and research institutions, the aviation industry can continually refine these strategies, adapting to the emerging challenges posed by climate change.

By investing in technology, training, and education, the goal of safer skies amidst increasing clear air turbulence becomes a more achievable reality.

The study is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres.

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