Chocolate and cocoa prices have doubled in the past year, here's why

Cocoa is the backbone of the $100 billion chocolate industry, and the source of livelihood for millions of small-scale cocoa farmers in warm tropical climates. Unfortunately, climate change makes it increasingly difficult for these farmers to maintain productivity, putting the future of this crop under growing threat.

The increased global consumption of cocoa has already provoked plantation expansion and intensified cultivation schemes – frequently at the expense of local biodiversity and long-term ecosystem resilience.

As the sector struggles with these issues, scientists are working on solutions that can safeguard cocoa production and the ecosystems they depend on. New findings suggest that nature itself may hold the key to securing cocoa’s future.

Skyrocketing cocoa costs

In December 2024, cocoa prices soared to an unprecedented $12,646 per metric ton. Experts link this jump to years of adverse weather, which has been linked to climate change, and the cocoa swollen shoot virus in West Africa.

As a result, manufacturing costs for chocolate have surged more than 167% over the past two years, forcing retailers to raise prices.

Consumers now face higher chocolate costs at checkout, weighing whether a favorite sweet is worth the extra expense.

Hershey’s buying practices mean current cocoa costs won’t hit shelves right away. Still, the company stated, “We continue to collaborate with our retail partners to ensure we offer a variety of products that meet the right occasions and price points for our consumers.” A 1-pound bar of Hershey’s remains $14.99 for now.

Dirk Van de Put of Mondelez International cited “unprecedented cocoa cost inflation,” while cocoa futures rose 143%.

“Every time we get rain in West Africa, the futures change. People are watching it that close. It’s just crazy. There’s a lot of money on the table in this exchange,” said Branch.

The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce 70% of all cocoa, making adverse weather and disease – often tied to climate change – key factors.

Climate threats to cocoa farming

A collaborative research effort has shed light on the growing risks that climate change poses to cocoa production.

More significantly, the study suggests possible methods for farmers to maintain productivity, without further encroaching on our much-needed forests.

The research, which sought to understand the crucial factors that shape cocoa yields, was conducted in Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia, whose combined production covers a third of the world’s cocoa.

Pollinators boost yields up to 20%

One key finding of the study was that increased pollination rates could effectively augment yields by a significant fifth.

As understood from the study, many cocoa plantations are currently incompletely pollinated, which prevents them from reaching their full yield potential.

“Cocoa is pollinated by tiny insects such as midges and thrips, and it comes as quite a surprise that most of the time there simply isn’t enough pollination happening to produce the cocoa crop that is possible,” said Dr. Acheampong Atta-Boateng, who recently completed his doctoral work at the University of Oxford.

Changes in temperature also influence yields, a fact that highlights the vulnerability of cocoa-producing regions to climate change.

Sites where temperatures were higher by up to 7 degrees recorded cocoa yields that were reduced by between 20 and 31%.

Cocoa farming vs. future climate

The concluding recommendations of the study highlight practical, feasible strategies to enhance pollination and manage the growing impact of climate change.

Priorities include maintaining leaf litter and other understory biomass, preserving soil organic matter, providing suitable shade, and cutting back on chemical use in agriculture.

“This research shows that sustainable agricultural methods can significantly improve cocoa yields without farm expansion or intensification,” stressed Dr. Tonya Lander from the University of Oxford, the lead author of the study.

By adopting biodiversity-centered, climate-resilient farming techniques, the cocoa sector can both increase production and safeguard farmers’ livelihoods.

“The rising demand for cocoa and the short-term economic benefits to farmers has led to plantation expansion and ecological homogenization at the expense of biodiversity and vital ecosystem services, like pollination,” said Dr. Tom Wanger of Westlake University in China.

“This study highlights the long-term risks of this approach, and how pollination can be a solution that works, alongside climate-resilient agricultural systems, to achieve long-term, ecologically and financially sustainable solutions,” he concluded.

Implementing sustainable practices

Although the research emphasizes increased pollination and climate-resilient agriculture, the adoption of these practices on a large scale needs unified action by farmers, policy makers, and industry leaders.

The small-scale cocoa farmers, who are the backbone of the industry, do not have access to the resources and information for adopting these sustainable farming practices.

One of the most significant challenges is striking a balance between short-term economic pressures and long-term sustainability.

Most farmers operate on limited finances, making it hard to invest in biodiversity-friendly methods or move away from chemical-based agriculture.

Offering financial incentives, such as subsidies or premium pricing for sustainably grown cocoa, may help bridge this gap by encouraging farmers to adopt more eco-friendly practices.

Additionally, farmer training and education initiatives can enable producers to learn about the importance of pollinators and adopt practices that promote biodiversity.

Methods such as agroforestry – growing cocoa trees with other indigenous plants – can increase pollination rates while also providing additional sources of income.

Though demand stays strong, rising production expenses and uncertain supply may reshape chocolate prices for years to come.

However, by investing in sustainable solutions now, the cocoa sector can help ensure that generations to come can still enjoy chocolate while protecting the livelihoods of farmers and the ecosystems that support them.

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This study was an international collaboration involving scientists from the University of Oxford, Westlake University in China, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz in Brazil, and the University of Göttingen in Germany

The full study was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

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