Capable countries must take the lead on climate goals

Despite significant progress in clean energy, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. This highlights the need for a more integrated approach that combines technological advancements with strong institutional capacities to formulate effective policies to reach global climate goals. 

Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have contributed to a new international study that emphasizes this crucial integration as essential for meeting the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.

CO2 emissions on the rise

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a target that requires rapid reductions in CO2 emissions and a greater focus on reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases. 

However, despite advancements in clean energy technologies, global CO2 emissions have been on the rise for the past three years, reversing the temporary decline observed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Published in Nature Climate Change, the study was led by the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland, in collaboration with the IIASA-led ENGAGE project (Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions). This global consortium brings together leading research groups from various disciplines to address the complex challenges of climate change.

“These new insights highlight the critical challenges in meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals given recent global climate-damaging emissions trends,” said Bas van Ruijven, a co-author of the study and coordinator of the ENGAGE project.

Feasible pathways to climate goals

The researchers aimed to generate knowledge that could inform the design of cost-effective, technologically viable, and socially and politically feasible pathways to achieve the Paris Agreement’s objectives. 

Using eight advanced multi-regional and process-based global integrated assessment models (IAMs) and analyzing 20 different feasibility scenarios, the researchers found that the institutional dimension – specifically, the capacity of countries to implement effective climate regulation – plays the most significant role in determining feasible peak temperatures.

“Through rigorous analysis of climate scenarios across eight different models, our research underscores the importance of accounting for the varying capacities of countries as well as regional differences,” explained Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at CGS and lead author of the study.

New approach to climate goals

The study demonstrates that when institutional constraints are considered alongside technological and socio-cultural factors, the most feasible pathways to achieving the Paris climate goals differ significantly from the cost-effective benchmarks that are often used.

“From an international fairness perspective, this also means that today’s affluent countries like the US and the EU not only need to reach their net-zero targets, but they need to think about multilateral collaborations to enhance governance and institutional capacity in vulnerable regions,” added Keywan Riahi, co-author of the study and director of the Energy, Climate, and Environment Program at IIASA.

By incorporating region-specific governance indicators, the study showcases the varying capacities of regions to implement climate mitigation policies effectively. 

This approach builds on earlier work conducted under the ENGAGE project, which assessed the feasibility of transformation pathways for achieving the Paris Climate Agreement and served as a foundation for developing the new scenarios.

Institutional capacity across different regions 

The tools and methodologies developed as part of the ENGAGE project to explore the multidimensional feasibility of decarbonization pathways have been made available to decision-makers in a Summary for Policymakers. 

The new study adds a nuanced framework that can be used in future research to represent institutional capacity across different regions and over time.

“These new scenarios explore the implications of having many countries that potentially lack the institutional capacity to implement ambitious climate policies,” said Elina Brutschin, a co-author of the study and researcher in the IIASA Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group. 

“With additional strategies such as rapid demand-side transformation (especially in affluent countries) combined with fast electrification, it could still be possible to limit peak temperature to below 1.7°C.”

Technological feasibility of climate-neutrality

Study co-author Gunnar Luderer leads the Energy Systems Group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and is a professor of global energy systems analysis at the Technical University of Berlin. 

Luderer noted that thanks to the latest advances in low carbon technology deployment such as solar, wind, or electric vehicles, the technological feasibility of climate-neutrality is no longer the most crucial issue. “It is much more about how fast climate policy ambition can be ramped up by governments.”

The research underscores the critical need to balance technological advancements with institutional capabilities when formulating effective climate policies. It demonstrates that inadequate institutional capacity could hinder the achievement of even a 2°C target, while improved global institutional support could increase the likelihood of meeting the 1.6°C target by up to 45 percent.

As the global community intensifies its efforts toward the 1.5°C goal, it is imperative to identify pathways that enhance the feasibility of climate actions and reduce carbon costs. 

The study’s findings offer valuable insights for guiding ongoing climate policy discussions and future scenario assessments, thereby supporting informed decision-making on global climate ambitions.

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