Auroras will light up the skies this weekend from "Cannibal" solar eruption

Update: Saturday, August 3, 2024, 10:32 AM EDT

According to the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the sun has been quite busy in the past 24 hours. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with an M8 flare is anticipated to arrive between midday to late on August 3, 2024.

A G2 Watch has been issued for August 3 and August 4, 2024, and the previous aurora alert, which is discussed below, now extends further south into the continental U.S.

Scientists observed several M-class solar flares, which are medium-sized flares that can cause brief radio blackouts at high latitudes and minor radiation storms.

Eleven sunspot groups were spotted on the sun’s surface, contributing to these energetic events. The most notable flare came from Region 3770, reaching an M1.9 level early in the day. Two other regions, 3772 and 3774, also showed significant activity and growth.

Filament eruption

Aside from the flares, there was a filament eruption near the sun’s southern hemisphere. Filaments are large, bright loops of solar material stretching from one sunspot to another.

This particular eruption didn’t result in another coronal mass ejection (CME), which is a significant release of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s corona. CMEs can lead to geomagnetic storms on Earth, affecting satellite operations and power grids.

Forecast: More activity ahead

Experts predict that solar activity will remain moderate to high over the next few days. We can expect more M-class flares and even the possibility of an X-class flare, which is the most intense type.

These forecasts are due to the numerous magnetically complex sunspot groups currently visible on the sun’s surface.

Energetic particles: Current status

Over the past day, electron flux, which tracks how many electrons are passing through a specific area, has been normal. Similarly, proton flux, another measure of solar particles, has also remained at background levels.

However, forecasts suggest that electron flux might bump up to moderate levels in the next few days. There’s also a possibility that proton flux could hit S1 levels, indicating a minor solar radiation storm.

This is linked to activity from an old sunspot region, AR3768, and a group of regions moving into a better position on the sun’s southwest limb.

Solar wind: A calm period

The solar wind, which is the stream of charged particles coming from the sun’s corona, has returned to normal levels.

Measurements show solar wind speeds ranging from 330 to 425 kilometers per second, and the magnetic field linked to the solar wind has stayed pretty stable.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on August 1st is expected to boost solar wind activity in the next few days, possibly leading to higher speeds and some shifts in the magnetic field. By August 5th, we should start to see the effects of this CME fading.

Anticipating a geomagnetic storm

A moderate geomagnetic storm (G2) is likely on August 3rd and 4th, triggered by the anticipated arrival of the CME from August 1st.

This should lead to visible auroras at higher latitudes and potential disruptions to satellite communications, which is discussed in greater detail below.

By August 5th, the geomagnetic field should return to quiet to unsettled levels as the CME influence diminishes.

Why it matters

Solar activity can have significant impacts on our technology and daily life. Solar flares and CMEs can disrupt radio communications, affect GPS signals, and even pose risks to astronauts in space.

Understanding and predicting these solar events help us mitigate their effects and protect our technological infrastructure.

Stay informed at Earth.com and the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

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Update: August 2, 9:44 PM EDT

Aurora activity likely due to “cannibal” CME

Prepare for a remarkable celestial event this weekend, offering a unique opportunity for residents across the U.S. and Canada to witness a breathtaking aurora display from the sun during peak hours.

As sunlight interacts with Earth’s atmosphere, you will observe vibrant colors and intricate patterns from the Northern Lights that promise to captivate your senses.

What can we expect from this extraordinary display? What are the best practices for viewing it? Furthermore, how can we fully immerse ourselves in this spectacular light show? Let’s take a little time to talk it over.

Auroras and CMEs

Lately, the sun has been really active, sending out big bursts of energy called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). You can think of these as huge bubbles of gas and magnetic fields that break away from the sun’s surface, often zipping through space at amazing speeds.

CMEs can release billions of tons of solar material, creating a spectacular show of energy that can really affect space weather.

This weekend, we’re looking forward to a really cool event with an ominous name: a “cannibal” CME, where one CME catches up to and absorbs another. This can lead to a more powerful eruption aimed right at Earth, cranking up the effects we feel from solar activity.

When these solar storms hit Earth’s magnetic field, they create those beautiful light shows we know as auroras.

The stunning auroras we love, especially the northern lights, come from this interaction. Normally, you can only catch these vibrant displays in polar regions, but when they’re strong enough, they can even be seen at lower latitudes, enchanting everyone with their magical glow.

When and where to look

Mark your calendars for August 2 to 4, as this timeframe offers the best chance to view the auroras. If you reside in the northern U.S. or Canada, you are well-positioned to catch this display, with areas northern Washington, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York and Maine having the best opportunity.

Generally, the further north you venture, the greater your likelihood of witnessing the lights.

For optimal viewing conditions, seek a dark location away from city lights. The hours around midnight typically provide the darkest skies, enhancing visibility.

Understanding the science of auroras

How do the northern lights come to be? Their existence arises from a dynamic interaction between the sun and Earth’s atmosphere. The sun continuously releases streams of charged particles.

When these particles encounter Earth’s magnetic field, they are directed toward the poles. As they travel through the upper atmosphere, they collide with gas molecules, leading to a dazzling light display created by these interactions.

Different gases emit different colors: oxygen often produces green and red hues, while nitrogen yields blue and purple shades.

This weekend’s highlight: The Cannibal CME

Let’s delve deeper into the distinctive feature of this weekend’s event — the cannibal CME. This phenomenon is relatively rare and significantly intensifies the resulting auroras.

Typically, CMEs traverse space independently. However, a faster CME may catch up to and merge with a preceding, slower CME, producing a single, more potent eruption that can lead to more striking auroras when it reaches Earth.

This event can be likened to a cosmic convergence, yielding stunning visual effects for sky-watchers on the ground.

Insights from experts

The experts at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) have been monitoring solar activity closely and have observed heightened solar flares.

These bursts of radiation from the sun’s surface indicate increased activity, which may lead to stronger geomagnetic storms upon contact with Earth’s magnetic field. Such intensified storms often produce more visible and expansive auroras.

Strategies for observing auroras

To maximize your experience of this celestial spectacle, consider the following tips:

• Seek out dark skies: Utilize a light pollution map to locate the darkest areas nearby.

• Exercise patience: Auroras can be elusive; allow ample time for observation.

• Utilize technology: Modern smartphone cameras are often capable of capturing auroras more effectively than the human eye.

• Stay updated: Monitor aurora forecasts to identify periods of heightened activity.

Looking ahead

We may be on the verge of entering a period known as solar maximum, marked by heightened solar activity within the sun’s 11-year cycle.

Should this pattern persist, we can anticipate an increased frequency and intensity of auroral displays in the coming years.

These cosmic light shows serve as a vivid reminder of the intricate relationship between the sun and Earth. They highlight how distant cosmic events can manifest stunning phenomena right here in our atmosphere.

This weekend, consider bundling up and stepping outside to gaze at the night sky. You might be fortunate enough to witness one of nature’s most extraordinary displays, potentially sparking a lasting curiosity about the wonders of our solar system and beyond.

It is worth noting that each aurora is distinctive. Even if you have experienced them previously, this weekend’s display may reveal new and awe-inspiring sights.

Happy sky-watching!

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