Can we meet climate targets with carbon capture technology?

As the world races to meet critical climate targets set by the Paris Agreement, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as an essential technology for reducing global warming.

CCS is designed to capture carbon dioxide and store it deep underground, with applications that range from curbing industrial emissions to achieving negative emissions through processes like bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture.

The slow pace of carbon capture technology

However, despite its promise, a growing body of research highlights a concerning gap between the current pace of CCS deployment and the scale needed to meet these climate goals.

Without rapid and extensive implementation, CCS may fall short of the role it must play in helping limit global temperature rise to 2°C, let alone the more ambitious 1.5°C target.

The urgency surrounding CCS highlights the need for significant advancements, both in technology and infrastructure, to make a substantial dent in global carbon emissions. Can this technology rise to the challenge in time?

The reality of CCS deployment

“CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries,” said Professor Jessica Jewell of Chalmers University of Technology.

“Yet our results show that major efforts are needed to bridge the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the massive deployment we need to mitigate climate change.”

A detailed study conducted by researchers at Chalmers, in collaboration with experts from the University of Bergen, presents a bleak outlook.

The team assessed the growth and future of carbon capture and storage technology, considering whether it’s on track for fulfilling the Paris Climate Agreement.

The study indicates that we can sequester, at best, 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide with carbon capture and storage technology over the 21st century.

However, reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that we need to capture and store over 1,000 Gt of CO2 by the end of the century to stay within our climate targets.

Swift action for climate targets

Beyond the quantity of carbon that must be sequestered, time is of the essence. The sooner we start using carbon capture and storage extensively, the greater the chances of keeping our global temperature rise within 1.5°C or 2°C.

The researchers emphasized that much of their study focused on how quickly carbon capture and storage technology could expand.

Notably, policy-driven initiatives like the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States are steering the development of carbon capture and storage.

Increasing carbon capture technology

Should all current plans come to fruition, the world will have increased its CCS capacity to eight times the current level by 2030. But this projection isn’t free from doubt.

“Even though there are ambitious plans for CCS, there are big doubts about whether these are feasible,” said Tsimafei Kazlou, PhD candidate at the University of Bergen.

“About 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of almost 90 percent. If historic failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today, which would be insufficient for climate targets.”

Carbon capture and future climate

The good news is that even with the gloomy outlook, there are lessons to be learned from the past. While CCS growth isn’t linear, we can look at the growth rates of other technologies.

To meet requirements, carbon capture and storage will need to grow at the rate of wind power in the early 2000s.

From the 2040s, CCS will need to match the peak growth of nuclear energy during the 1970s and 1980s. However, even such a monumental growth rate might not be enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, although the 2°C target could be within reach.

In conclusion, the study highlights the need for robust policy support for CCS, coupled with a rapid expansion of other decarbonization technologies to meet climate targets.

The journey to a cleaner and safer planet is before us, and the question is, are we prepared to take the leap?

The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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