Arctic wildfires will drastically intensify as permafrost thaws

Imagine a world where the ice that has held our planet’s deep secrets for millenia begins to melt. Permafrost, a thick layer of frozen soil that blankets the Arctic and Subarctic regions, is under threat from global warming.

Aided by warmer climates, this icy ground is now thawing at an unprecedented rate with a ripple effect of repercussions including dangerous wildfires.

Permafrost thaw and wildfires

In a recent publication, a team of international climate scientists and permafrost experts unravel the chilling consequences of the accelerating permafrost thaw.

The study is yet another confirmation that greenhouse gas emissions are setting us on an irreversible course of climate change.

Guided by a new breed of climate computer models, the research presents an alarming scenario – thawing permafrost could trigger a surge in wildfires in the Subarctic and Arctic regions of northern Canada and Siberia.

Sowing the seeds of destruction

As our planet heats up and permafrost thaws, the soil loses its moisture content. This one-two punch of increased warmth and dryness paves the way for wildfires to thrive.

And this isn’t just a theory. Observations already point to the fact that warm and unusually dry conditions have intensified wildfires in the Arctic region.

Permafrost thaw, wildfires, and climate change

Previously, climate models skimmed over the complex interplay between global warming, permafrost thawing, soil water, and wildfires.

However, this new study takes a giant leap forward by incorporating these factors into the Community Earth System Model, a comprehensive earth system model that dovetails the interactions between soil water, permafrost, and wildfires.

Understanding and simulating future anthropogenic warming and its impact on wildfire occurrence is no small feat. The role of accelerated permafrost thawing must be taken into consideration.

A trip through time

In their quest to separate the human-induced increase in greenhouse gas emissions from naturally occurring variations in climate, the research team turned to a sophisticated ensemble of 50 past-to-future simulations.

The experts journeyed through time, spanning from 1850 to the projected future of 2100 CE under a specific greenhouse gas emission scenario.

This time-traveling exercise was conducted by scientists from the IBS Center for Climate Physics in Busan, South Korea, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

The simulations, generated on the IBS supercomputer Aleph, revealed a chilling reality.

Tipping point of fire and ice

According to the simulations, anthropogenic permafrost thawing in the Subarctic and Arctic regions will intensify by the mid to late 21st century.

Excess soil water will drain quickly in many areas, resulting in a steep decline in soil moisture, and a subsequent rise in surface warming and atmospheric drying.

“These conditions will intensify wildfires,” said Dr. In-Won Kim, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at the IBS Center for Climate Physics, South Korea.

Dr. Kim warns of drastic transitions from virtually no fires to very intense wildfires in just a matter of years in the second half of the 21st century.

Vegetation biomass, a significant player in fire propagation, is predicted to increase in high-latitude areas due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This so-called CO2 fertilization effect acts as an accelerant to the already burgeoning fire crisis.

Permafrost thaw and wildfire intensification

Professor Hanna Lee, co-author of the study at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, emphasized the importance of improving our understanding of small-scale hydrological processes in climate models.

Permafrost thaw and wildfire intensification dynamics are not merely isolated phenomena, but they are components of a complex feedback loop.

“Wildfires release carbon dioxide, and black and organic carbon into the atmosphere, which can affect climate and feed back to the permafrost thawing processes in the Arctic,” noted study co-author Professor Axel Timmermann, director of the ICCP.

The next step calls for the integration of fire emissions and atmospheric processes into earth system models.

Our understanding of the great thaw and its repercussions continues to evolve. The question is – can we adapt swiftly enough to prevent the flames of climate change from consuming our future?

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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