Animal movement predictions matter more than ever

At any single moment on Earth, billions of animals are on the move. Birds cross continents, marine mammals traverse vast oceans, insects pollinate fields and orchards, and mammals – from foxes to hedgehogs – navigate their way through forests, grasslands, and even city gardens.

These movements are not random; they are vital threads, in the fabric of ecosystems, that support biodiversity, regulate natural cycles, and ultimately sustain life on Earth.

In line with this, understanding why animals move, how they choose their paths, and where they go has never been more important.

Animal movement in a changing world

New research from researchers at Swansea University, in collaboration with CNRS Montpellier and University College Dublin, offers a fresh perspective about animal movement in the face of global change.

Rather than simply tracking where animals go, this work explores how to predict where they will go next as the planet rapidly transforms due to human activity.

From climate shifts and habitat loss to pollution and urban sprawl, the conditions that animals face are evolving fast. Models and methods need to adapt just as quickly.

Tracking animals: GPS to big data

The study of animal movement has come a long way. With technologies such as GPS collars, satellite tags, radar, and even Fitbit-style sensors, scientists are now able to collect vast amounts of data on animal behavior.

These tools allow researchers to track everything from migration paths to daily commutes across a landscape. Each year, billions of data points pour in and are analyzed using cutting-edge mathematics and statistics.

But most of this work has focused on the present. Scientists have used these tools to describe patterns, not to forecast them.

And in a world where environments are changing faster than ever due to climate shifts, habitat loss, and human expansion, that kind of short-term thinking may be inadequate.

Human activity shapes animal paths

This new study lays out a roadmap for predicting animal movement in unpredictable times. The team reviewed how a wide range of human-driven changes – including ocean warming, deforestation, invasive species, light pollution, and oil spills – are shaping where and how animals move.

“To predict where animals will move in rapidly changing environments, we cannot rely on correlative approaches,” said Sara Gomez of CNRS Montpellier.

“We must incorporate biological mechanisms into our models, starting from first principles of animal movements and decision making, and develop models adequate for dynamical systems.”

The authors also argue that we need to study more species – and not just in pristine natural spaces. Movements in human-dominated environments are often overlooked, yet they may hold the key to understanding how animals adapt to novel challenges.

Improving wildlife management

Dr. Holly English of University College Dublin emphasized that this is not just about improving scientific models. These predictions could shape how we manage wildlife and design conservation strategies in future.

“We discuss the challenges and opportunities of including these predictions into more effective wildlife management and policy,” said Dr. English.

“We give examples of conservation schemes, such as rewilding and translocations, which offer exciting, but vastly unused, opportunities to collect data from novel environments and test our model predictions.”

Predictive science is needed

The study’s lead researcher, Professor Luca Börger from Swansea University, believes the field is on the edge of a major shift. “Animal movements fundamentally affect ecosystem processes,” he said.

“Current research in the field, however, fails to address one of the most pressing problems we are facing: predicting where and when animals will move in rapidly changing or ‘novel’ environments.”

“We believe we are at an exciting point now where we can achieve such a crucial transformation in our field, from a descriptive to a predictive science, which is much needed under current rapid global change,” said Professor Börger.

As the world changes, so must the science we use to understand it. This study is a call to think ahead – to build models that don’t just explain the past, but help us prepare for what comes next.

The full study was published in the Journal of Animal Ecology.

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