40 percent of Earth's land has became permanently drier 

Even as catastrophic floods and storms intensify in parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land has become permanently drier in recent decades, according to a stark new analysis released by UN scientists. 

Released by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, the report reveals that about 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions over the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period.

Over the same three decades, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km² – an area nearly a third larger than India – and now encompass 40.6% of all land on Earth, excluding Antarctica. 

Within this timeframe, some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – surpassed aridity thresholds. Most transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, setting off profound repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and the communities that depend on them.

High-emissions scenarios and dryland expansion

The report warns that if the world does not curb greenhouse gas emissions, an additional 3% of today’s humid areas could become drylands by the end of this century. 

Under high emissions scenarios, drylands are projected to spread across regions including the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.

The study, titled The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections, was presented at the 16th UNCCD conference (COP16) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

This was the largest UN land conference to date and the first in the Middle East – a region profoundly affected by aridity’s impacts. 

“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”

Climate change and drier land

According to the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, which authored the report, human-caused climate change is the primary driver of this shift. 

Emissions from electricity generation, transportation, industry, and land-use changes are heating the planet and altering rainfall patterns, evaporation rates, and plant life – conditions that underpin increasing aridity.

Data from global aridity indexes, which monitor long-term environmental shifts, reveal extensive drying trends. 

Areas most affected include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa. 

Meanwhile, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) became wetter, with some positive trends observed in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia. 

Overall, drylands are expanding globally, pushing ecosystems and societies into life-threatening challenges.

Growing impacts on human communities

The report identifies South Sudan and Tanzania as countries with the largest percentage of land turning into drylands, and China as having the greatest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands. 

As of 2020, 2.3 billion people – well over a quarter of the global population – live in these expanding drylands. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, poses a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.

The future could be even more bleak without action. Under worst-case emissions scenarios, up to five billion people might inhabit drylands by the century’s end. Such a scenario would mean depleted soils, scarce water resources, and collapsing ecosystems for large swaths of humanity.

Forced migration, already visible in some of the world’s driest regions, is one of the most immediate consequences. As land becomes inhospitable and farming fails, families and communities often have no choice but to relocate, intensifying social and political challenges globally.

Cascading effects of drier land

The cascading effects of rising aridity extend well beyond agriculture and water scarcity. 

The report warns that one-fifth of all land could undergo abrupt ecosystem transformations – forests turning into grasslands and other dramatic changes – leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plant and animal species. 

Aridity also drives a host of other problems, from declining GDP (notably in Africa) to intensifying wildfires and even public health crises, especially for children and women.

The global drying trend 

Addressing the threat of aridity demands more than just acknowledging the science – it requires concerted policy action and comprehensive adaptation measures. 

The report calls for improving aridity monitoring and integrating these metrics into drought monitoring systems, incentivizing sustainable land use, investing in water-efficient technologies, and building resilience in vulnerable communities. 

The experts also emphasize the need for international frameworks and collaboration, emphasizing that human rights, social justice, and responsible governance must guide this collective effort.

In essence, the global drying trend forces a new narrative: as we confront climate change, we must recognize the irreversible transformation of once-fertile lands into dry regions. 

Successfully adapting to this reality will determine whether we can secure a sustainable and equitable future in a world defined increasingly by the absence of water and the presence of ever-expanding drylands.

The full report can be found here.

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